Menu
Headlines
Fires burning around Europe did not appear to spread overnight, but hot weather is expected today and that risks reigniting hotspots.
Saudi Arabia and the US have carried out strikes against Iran-backed militias in Iraq, in a potential escalation of the Middle East conflict.
After several nights of relative calm in the region, the US military accused Iran of an attempted "surprise attack" overnight on Tuesday, claiming Tehran launched "multiple" ballistic missiles at American forces in the Middle East. US Central Command said that all missiles were "successfully intercepted".
Daily Market Update
Wheat
A continued modest correction with London November 2026 easing 75p to £198.75 and November 2027 down 25p to £197.25. Paris/Matif December fell 1.75 euros to €233.00. The correction is being driven by peace optimism and oil weakness rather than any fundamental improvement in supply — and this morning's news of fresh Iranian strikes in the Persian Gulf is already pushing oil back up, suggesting today's session may reverse some of yesterday's losses.
The Zelensky-Trump meeting took place yesterday — and simultaneously new attacks on grain vessels were reported in the Black Sea. The contrast could not be more stark. Whatever diplomatic progress was discussed in the meeting room, the physical reality in the Black Sea is unchanged — attacks continuing, Russian wheat export forecasts cut to 44.6 million tonnes against the USDA's 47.5 million tonne figure, and port infrastructure damage on both sides accumulating. Low water levels on the Rhine and Danube are adding a further logistical dimension to European supply chain disruption — inland waterway transport, critical for moving grain from producing regions to export ports, is increasingly compromised by drought conditions.
The rapeseed August 2026 Euronext contract expiry has been dramatic — falling more than €100/tonne in its final trading days, wiping out seven months of gains. The November 2026 benchmark contract closed at its lowest since July 10th at €531/tonne. This expiry distortion is contributing to the broader oilseed correction but does not reflect a fundamental change in the supply picture.
Australian wheat has been raised to 31 million tonnes from previous estimates above 29 million tonnes as recent weather has boosted yield potential — a modestly bearish datapoint for global supply. However drier El Niño conditions are forecast going forward, meaning this upgrade may prove temporary. From a Norfolk perspective, a better Australian crop increases competition for export business in the southern hemisphere shipping window but does not directly affect the near-term UK harvest marketing opportunity.
US Markets — Crop Ratings Alarming
Corn crop ratings fell 4 points — double the 2% expected — to 63% good/excellent, described as the biggest weekly drop in 10-20 years. Some analysts are now suggesting USDA's 183 bushels per acre corn yield estimate may need to come down to 180 bushels per acre. Soybean ratings fell 3 points to 63% good/excellent against a 1 point expectation. Current weather is temporarily friendly with some rain, but forecasts turn hotter and drier again — the respite may be brief. The Federal Reserve meets today with a 0.25% interest rate cut anticipated, which would weaken the dollar modestly and provide some support to dollar-denominated commodity exports.
Norfolk & East Anglian Perspective
The harvest is progressing across the region. With UK-wide yields under pressure — down 20% in many areas nationally — Norfolk and East Anglian grain is becoming progressively more valuable relative to expectations. Any quality shortfalls in other UK regions tighten the market for clean East Anglian grain. Reports of poor quality or yield disappointments from other producing regions across the UK directly support local values. Monitor incoming harvest data from other regions carefully — poor results elsewhere are good news for Norfolk prices.
Opinion
Zelensky meeting Trump while grain vessels are being attacked in the Black Sea simultaneously is the defining image of the current situation. Diplomacy and conflict are running in parallel and the market is trying to decide which one to price. This morning's Iranian strikes suggest the answer is both — oil is back up and the geopolitical premium will reassert at today's open.
The Rhine and Danube low water levels are the European supply story that is not getting sufficient attention. Grain from Central Europe that would normally travel by barge to Rhine ports or down the Danube to Black Sea ports is facing severe logistical constraints — adding a transport dimension to an already production-constrained European supply picture. This is not resolved by rainfall next week. River levels recover slowly.
Australian wheat raised to 31 million tonnes is the week's most genuinely bearish datapoint — but El Niño is building and the upgrade may not survive the southern hemisphere spring. Filed under encouraging but provisional.
Corn ratings posting the biggest weekly drop in 10-20 years while the market correction continues is the central market paradox of the week. The correction is being driven by sentiment and peace rumours. The crop data is screaming in the opposite direction. One of these will win — and historically, crop data wins.
£198.75 futures on November 2026. Ex-farm values in Norfolk will be at a discount to this level. The correction has taken futures off the highs but has not changed the fundamental supply picture one iota.