A powerful session driven by the combination of fresh Black Sea attacks and a bullish USDA report. London November 2026 surged £3.50 to £200.50 — breaking back through the psychologically significant £200 level — and Paris/Matif December gained 5.50 euros to €233.00. The safe corridor talk that had been applying modest downward pressure was comprehensively overridden by Ukraine launching fresh attacks on Novorossiysk — Russia’s deep-water port with 15.8 million tonne export capacity, 200,000 tonnes of storage and supply by both road and rail. Any expectation of a negotiated shipping solution has been set back significantly by this attack. Russia is expected to retaliate, further destabilising Black Sea export prospects.

A softer session ahead of today’s pivotal USDA report. London November 2026 fell £1.50 to £197.00 on a £4.25 intraday range and Paris/Matif December shed 2.75 euros to €227.50 on a 7.75 euro range. No specific bearish catalyst — the decline reflects pre-report long liquidation and book squaring rather than any fundamental shift. Today’s August WASDE is the market event of the week and positions are being trimmed ahead of publication.

A quiet, modestly negative session. London November 2026 eased 50p to £197.75 and Paris/Matif December fell 2.75 euros to €229.00. The market is consolidating at elevated levels with few fresh catalysts in either direction. An important distinction is emerging — the recent price rises have been driven primarily by logistics and supply chain disruption rather than production failure alone. Russia and Ukraine are both forecast to have large wheat crops, and traditional importers Turkey and Morocco have better domestic production this year. The problem is not that the wheat doesn’t exist — it is that it cannot move. Black Sea FOB prices from Russian and Ukrainian origin are actually lower, but transport is the insurmountable obstacle with the Black Sea effectively a no-go zone. Russia hit a foreign-flagged vessel in Odessa port yesterday — confirming that the physical risk to shipping is not receding.

Markets regained Tuesday’s losses. London November 2026 gained 75p to £198.25 and Paris/Matif December added 3.25 euros to €231.75. War and weather continue to provide the underlying support that repeatedly brings buyers back every time peace optimism triggers a sell-off.

Selling pressure returned yesterday, erasing Monday’s sharp rebound across all products. Unlike Monday — when grain rose against falling oil — yesterday’s session saw grains follow oil lower as US government announcements of an imminent Iran agreement sent WTI back below $75/barrel. The contrast between Monday and Tuesday illustrates the fundamental tension in this market: when physical supply stories dominate, grains rise independently of oil; when peace signals dominate, oil drags everything lower. The market has not yet decided which narrative is in charge.

A strong recovery after Friday’s false-peace-signal sell-off. London November 2026 gained £2.25 to £198.75 on a £7.75 intraday trading range, and Paris/Matif December added 5.50 euros to €232.25. Markets correctly identified that Friday’s optimism about Black Sea export route reopening was premature — tensions remain as palpable as ever and Russian attacks on Ukrainian Black Sea ports have if anything intensified. Oil fell below $80/barrel on Iran optimism but grain markets absorbed that bearish signal and closed higher regardless — a sign of genuine underlying strength when a market rises against a headwind of lower energy prices.

A poor end to the week and a difficult month conclusion. London November 2026 fell £3.25 to £196.50 and Paris/Matif December shed 7 euros to €227.28 with rapeseed suffering 15 euro losses. For the week London November lost £3.25 and Paris December 9 euros — giving back a significant portion of the extraordinary mid-month gains. The catalyst was another proposed Iran peace talk deflating oil prices — the same mechanism that has repeatedly triggered corrections throughout this conflict. Wheat broke technical support and closed at a two-week low, which will attract further algorithm-driven selling at today’s open.

A continued modest correction with London November 2026 easing 75p to £198.75 and November 2027 down 25p to £197.25. Paris/Matif December fell 1.75 euros to €233.00. The correction is being driven by peace optimism and oil weakness rather than any fundamental improvement in supply — and this morning’s news of fresh Iranian strikes in the Persian Gulf is already pushing oil back up, suggesting today’s session may reverse some of yesterday’s losses.

Another volatile session with a £7 intraday range on London November 2026 before closing virtually unchanged at £199.50, down just 0.25p. Paris/Matif December eased 1.50 euros to €234.75. The market wanted to fall further on peace optimism and oil weakness but found buyers every time it approached support — a sign that the physical supply reality is preventing a sustained correction even when geopolitical sentiment softens. OSR suffered more significantly, down approximately 15 euros in sympathy with a sharp crude oil correction.

An extraordinary day of volatility to end the week. London November 2026 had a £12.50 intraday trading range before closing at £199.75 — down significantly from Thursday’s highs but still up £2.50 for the week. November 2027 fell £3.00 to £197.50. Paris/Matif December shed 8.75 euros to €236.25, though the weekly loss was just 25 euro cents given Monday’s surge. The pattern is now entirely familiar — rumour of peace or diplomatic progress triggers massive fund liquidation, reality reasserts, and prices partially recover.