A softer session as the USDA’s bearish Friday report continued to weigh. London November 2026 fell £1.75 to £208.00, November 2027 gained 25p to £204.75, and Paris/Matif December eased just 0.50 euros to €240.50. The USDA surprised markets with higher global wheat stocks — a bearish outcome relative to the consensus expectation of tightening — combined with reports that Russia and Ukraine have allegedly agreed not to attack each other’s energy facilities. The energy ceasefire, if it holds and extends to agricultural export infrastructure, would be the most significant diplomatic development of the conflict for grain markets. That is a large if — but the market is pricing some probability of it.

A quiet but positive European session. London November 2026 gained 25p to £212.75, November 2027 up £1.25 to £206.75, and Paris/Matif December edged up 0.50 euros to €245.25. Markets found support in the wake of surging crude oil prices and a weaker euro rather than any fresh Black Sea development — the physical situation remains entirely unchanged with daily attacks on both Russian and Ukrainian port infrastructure continuing. The session was characterised by cautious positioning ahead of today’s USDA report rather than conviction in either direction.

Values faded through the session with London November 2026 falling £2.50 to £212.50, November 2027 unchanged at £205.50, and Paris/Matif December easing 2.50 euros to €244.75. Pre-USDA profit taking and long position reduction dominated as funds moved to secure accumulated gains ahead of tomorrow’s report. Russia hinting at a continued diplomatic path for Ukraine provided additional justification for selling — though Ukraine simultaneously launched further attacks on Novorossiysk, confirming the physical reality remains entirely unchanged.

A volatile session with significant intraday swings ultimately resolving modestly higher. London November 2026 gained £1.25 to £215.00 and November 2027 added 25p to £205.50, while Paris/Matif December eased 2 euros to €247.25. The Euronext September 2026 contract expiry created technical distortion — prices were pushed down to €232.50/tonne before the market recovered to close at €240.75. Deferred contracts ended slightly lower after an initially firmer open supported by the reopening of US markets and the confirmation that no tangible progress has been made on the Black Sea export disruption.

A positive session to start the week. London November 2026 closed at £213.75 and May 2027 at £219.25 — a constructive open to the week as markets absorbed the weekend’s diplomatic developments and found the physical supply reality more compelling than the peace rhetoric. The Witkoff-Kushner visits to Moscow and Kyiv produced no operational change — Zelensky has indicated the war continues into winter and early September Black Sea export data confirms flows remain well below normal.

A difficult end to last week. London November 2026 fell £3.00 to £212.50, November 2027 down £1.75 to £203.25, and Paris/Matif December shed 2.50 euros to €246.25. For the week as a whole London November 2026 lost £3.25, November 2027 down £4.75 and Paris December down 4.75 euros — giving back a significant portion of the previous week’s extraordinary gains. The pressure came from the anticipated Witkoff-Kushner diplomatic mission to Moscow and Kyiv over the weekend, with funds taking profits ahead of a long US weekend and a diplomatic visit that carries at least the possibility of peace progress.

One word — “peace” — was enough to trigger a sharp sell-off. London November 2026 fell £3.75 to £215.50 on a £7 intraday range, November 2027 down £3.50 to £205.00, and Paris/Matif December shed 8 euros to €248.75 with 131,000 contracts traded on the December position — exceptional volume reflecting the scale of the repositioning. The catalyst was Putin’s speech at the Russian Far Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, where he stated there is a chance of a peace agreement while simultaneously blaming Ukrainian attacks as an obstacle. These words of intention have been pronounced multiple times since 2022 and no signs of de-escalation appear on the ground — yet the grain market responded with its largest single-day fall in weeks.

Another volatile session with new highs reached intraday before profit taking. Then this morning, Putin has stated Russia is seeking not a ceasefire but an end to the war and is prepared to discuss a long-term settlement — London November 2026 has dropped nearly £6 to £213.50 on the back of this announcement. The familiar pattern reasserts — any signal of diplomatic progress triggers immediate long liquidation regardless of whether the substance justifies it.

A powerful end to last week with London November 2026 closing Friday up £3.25 at £215.75 and November 2027 gaining £2.50 to £208.00. Paris/Matif December added 3.50 euros to €251.00. For the week as a whole the gains were extraordinary — November 2026 up £10.75, November 2027 up £6.00 and Paris December up 13.25 euros. The cumulative effect of Putin declaring talks fruitless, Egypt buying French wheat and Chicago reaching three-year highs on limit-up short covering has delivered the most significant weekly gain of the entire season.

An explosive session. London November 2026 surged £4.50 to £210.25 — breaking through £210 for the first time — and November 2027 gained £2.75 to £205.25. Paris/Matif December jumped 8.50 euros to €245.25. Chicago wheat hit limit up with new contract highs at their highest level in three years as funds scrambled to cover short positions — the market had been net short 26,000 contracts at the start of the week, and Putin’s bellicose speech triggered a violent and rapid short-covering rally.