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Russia has attacked Ukraine with ballistic missiles and drones, killing at least 17 people and leaving at least 44 injured, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky said.
Temperatures to drop briefly ahead of potential new UK heatwave.
The dire forecast has sparked calls to factor domestic food production into the current debate about Britain's national security, as it currently relies on imports for 40% of all food consumed.
Iran told state broadcaster Press TV that agreement with Oman was within reach if the US stopped interfering with discussions.
Daily Market Update
Wheat
Selling pressure returned yesterday, erasing Monday's sharp rebound across all products. Unlike Monday — when grain rose against falling oil — yesterday's session saw grains follow oil lower as US government announcements of an imminent Iran agreement sent WTI back below $75/barrel. The contrast between Monday and Tuesday illustrates the fundamental tension in this market: when physical supply stories dominate, grains rise independently of oil; when peace signals dominate, oil drags everything lower. The market has not yet decided which narrative is in charge.
EU soft wheat exports for 2026/27 have reached just 0.7 million tonnes by August 2nd — down 61% year on year. This is the physical consequence of the Black Sea disruption and the broader supply chain dislocation playing out in actual trade data. Lithuania leads EU exports at 202,606 tonnes, followed by Bulgaria, Germany, Poland and Latvia — notably absent from the top of the list is France, whose data is incomplete. EU barley exports at 0.31 million tonnes are down 82% year on year. These are extraordinary year-on-year declines that confirm how severely the current season's supply and logistics disruption is affecting actual trade flows.
Jordan passed on its 120,000 tonne milling wheat tender — a sign that buyers are not yet desperate enough to pay current prices, though the tender is expected to be relaunched on August 11th. South Korean flour mills bought 50,000 tonnes of US milling wheat — a small but concrete demand signal from a quality-sensitive buyer. Algeria's OAIC tender conclusion today for soft wheat shipment mid-September to end October is the week's most important physical market event — the result will reveal both price levels and origins acceptable to one of the world's most significant wheat importers at a time when its traditional Russian supply is severely disrupted.
Black Sea — Unchanged Reality
Despite the oil market's reaction to Iran peace signals, the Black Sea situation is entirely unchanged. Trade remains heavily disrupted by blockages and ongoing strikes. Alternative export route efforts from both Ukraine and Russia are intensifying but facing numerous practical difficulties. The divergence between what oil markets are pricing — imminent peace — and what the physical grain trade is experiencing — severe and worsening disruption — remains the central market paradox.
US Markets
Corn crop ratings fell a further 2 points to 61% good/excellent — accelerating deterioration that the market is currently choosing to discount in favour of rain forecasts. Soybeans steady at 63%. Beneficial rainfall moving into the southeastern Corn Belt with 1-2 inches forecast for Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin as soybeans enter critical pod-filling stage — the most important weather event of the week for US crop outcomes. The westernmost Corn Belt remains short of rain over the next two weeks. Spring wheat up 2 points to 55% with 86% harvested.
China bought 132,000 tonnes of new crop soybeans via USDA flash sale — a modest purchase that failed to stem the broader selling. The pattern of small Chinese purchases continues — buying in parcels to avoid price impact rather than the large headline purchases the market has been waiting for.
Norfolk & East Anglian Context
EU exports down 61% year on year is the data point that most directly supports Norfolk grain values. In a normal season EU exports would be surging at this time of year — the near-collapse of export volumes confirms that supply available for trade is severely reduced. Whatever clean quality grain East Anglian fields produce this harvest is entering a market where competing exportable supply is dramatically lower than last year. The Algeria tender result today will be an important price reference for the current global value of milling wheat.
Opinion
EU soft wheat exports down 61% year on year. EU barley exports down 82%. These numbers should be on the front page of every agricultural publication. The world is not buying less grain — it simply cannot access it because the supply chain has been comprehensively disrupted. When disruption eases — and eventually it will — the demand that has been pent up will meet a production base that has been significantly reduced. That is the medium-term bull case in one sentence.
Jordan passing on its wheat tender is the market's first concrete evidence that price levels are testing the limits of import budget sensitivity. Import-dependent nations do not pass on tenders lightly — Jordan's decision either reflects confidence that prices will fall, availability of alternative cheaper supply, or genuine budget constraint. Given the current supply picture, only the third explanation seems plausible. The August 11th re-tender will be watched very carefully.
The Iran announcement of imminent agreement and WTI below $75 is being treated by the grain market with the scepticism it has earned — yesterday the market followed oil lower, but the Black Sea reality is unchanged and today's Algerian tender conclusion may reassert the physical supply story. We have been here before. Iran says one thing, the market sells, and within 48 hours the geopolitical reality reasserts.
China buying 132,000 tonnes in a flash sale rather than a large headline purchase is a deliberate procurement strategy — buy regularly in small parcels to avoid bidding against yourself. The cumulative Chinese buying over the past month is considerable even if no single purchase has been dramatic.