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Iran says it has reached an agreement with Oman on a route for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
There are huge clouds of black smoke over the Russian city of Yaroslavl, home to one of the country's biggest oil refineries, after a Ukrainian drone attack.
Following Russia's attack on ships in the Black Sea near the port of Odesa in Ukraine, the regional governor reported that a ship sailing under a 'foreign flag' and loaded with wheat was attacked. According to him, one crew member was killed and a fire broke out on deck. Ukraine's port authority reported that the vessel 'Mara Queen,' sailing under the flag of Guinea-Bissau, was hit.
Daily Market Update
Wheat
Markets regained Tuesday's losses. London November 2026 gained 75p to £198.25 and Paris/Matif December added 3.25 euros to €231.75. War and weather continue to provide the underlying support that repeatedly brings buyers back every time peace optimism triggers a sell-off.
The domestic headline of the week — and arguably the season — is the estimate that England will record its lowest wheat harvest since records began in 1984. Record high temperatures in June and a record dry July have combined to produce a catastrophic outcome. An estimated 2.5 million tonnes of grain and oilseeds have been lost with farmer revenues down £390 million. Long-term forecasts suggest no significant rainfall until October — though alternative forecasts are less pessimistic. For Norfolk farmers, this confirmation of historic production failure puts the current price environment in its proper context. The values available in the market right now reflect a genuine and severe domestic and global supply crisis.
EU production is down 20% overall with French corn at a 50-year low. No ships have entered Odessa ports in the last two weeks. Ukrainian port storage is reaching capacity with no significant shipping movement — the storage pressure will intensify as the corn harvest approaches, potentially forcing grain onto roads and rail at premium cost with no clear export destination. Russian July wheat exports of 1.6-1.8 million tonnes represent a 17-24% decline year on year, with August estimated at just 2.5-3 million tonnes against 5.76 million tonnes last year. Russia is being strangled by high freight and insurance costs even on routes not directly under attack.
This supply disruption may ultimately benefit the EU export programme — buyers who cannot access Black Sea origin are being forced to look elsewhere, and EU exporters are the natural alternative. The Algeria tender conclusion yesterday will have provided important price and origin signals for this developing trade flow.
Fertiliser — 2027 Warning
Phosphate supply could be down 30% and sulphur prices are elevated due to Chinese export restrictions — adding a fresh and significant input cost dimension to 2027 crop planning. After this season's urea crisis, the fertiliser supply problem is broadening rather than narrowing. Norfolk farmers planning 2027 input requirements need to factor phosphate availability and cost into autumn decisions alongside the already elevated nitrogen market.
Oil & Hormuz
Oil is lower as OPEC discusses increasing production by 118,000 barrels per day and Oman-Iran negotiations raise the possibility of Hormuz reopening. If genuine, a Hormuz reopening would provide some relief to fertiliser supply chains over the coming months — though the Black Sea disruption and phosphate concerns are independent of Hormuz and would persist regardless.
US Markets
Mixed session with good US weather reducing the weather premium in corn and soybeans. Wheat was the strongest US performer. Lower prices may attract Chinese buying — the question is whether Beijing is waiting for a specific price level or a diplomatic signal before committing to larger purchases.
Opinion
England's lowest wheat harvest since 1984 records began. That is the sentence that defines this season for Norfolk farmers and Dewing Grain's customers. It is not a statistic to be set alongside other data points — it is the headline. Every tonne of quality grain that comes off East Anglian fields this harvest is entering the tightest domestic supply environment in over forty years.
The £390 million revenue loss to English farmers is the financial reality behind what the weather data has been indicating for months. For those Norfolk growers who forward sold into the spring rally — this is the vindication. For those holding grain now — the supply picture justifies the current price environment and then some.
Ukrainian port storage reaching capacity with no shipping is the logistics crisis that will force decisions nobody wants to make. Grain sitting in silos with no export route and a new corn harvest approaching is Ukrainian farmers' worst nightmare — and it removes supply from world markets as effectively as any military attack. The storage pressure will reach breaking point as corn harvest begins.
Phosphate down 30% and sulphur elevated — after the nitrogen crisis of earlier this year, the fertiliser problem is now multi-nutrient. The 2027 crop is facing input availability and cost pressures that extend beyond what the nitrogen story alone suggested. This is a structural multi-year supply tightening story, not a single-season event.
Lowest harvest since 1984. Ukrainian ports at capacity. Phosphate down 30%. Russian August exports at half last year's pace. The supply crisis is as acute as at any point this season.