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Headlines
Canada's retaliatory tariffs on a range of US goods came into effect on Tuesday, with no sign of a trade deal on the horizon.
The first road bridge linking Russia and North Korea has opened, allowing the two countries to more easily move cargo and passengers between their border across the Tumen river.
The UK is expected to announce sanctions on goods and services from Israeli settlements in the illegally occupied West Bank
The Houthis have launched attacks on Saudi cities near the Saudi Arabia-Yemen border - which has caused oil prices to spike. The Saudis have vowed a firm response to the strikes by the Iranian proxy group, with women and children among the injured.
Daily Market Update
Wheat
A positive session to start the week. London November 2026 closed at £213.75 and May 2027 at £219.25 — a constructive open to the week as markets absorbed the weekend's diplomatic developments and found the physical supply reality more compelling than the peace rhetoric. The Witkoff-Kushner visits to Moscow and Kyiv produced no operational change — Zelensky has indicated the war continues into winter and early September Black Sea export data confirms flows remain well below normal.
The most significant development from Friday's CFTC data is the fund positioning shift — hedge funds turned net-long on CBOT wheat for the first time in several months, holding a net-long position of 14,654 contracts in the week ended September 1st. This is their most bullish stance in more than four years, representing a swing of almost 29,000 contracts from the previous week's net-short. Funds do not swing 29,000 contracts in a week without genuine conviction — this is a structural sentiment shift reflecting a fundamental reassessment of the wheat supply outlook.
Saudi Arabia cancelled its wheat tender, stating prices are not in line with market reality — a procurement gamble betting on Black Sea de-escalation that is far from guaranteed. A gradual return of international buyers is expected in coming weeks from Pakistan, Algeria and Morocco. Russia has been redirecting grain through Latvia as an alternative export route, but the Baltic Prime Minister has announced plans to implement a 300% tariff on Russian and Belarusian cereals — if implemented, this corridor closes, concentrating demand further on Romanian, Bulgarian and French origins.
Rapeseed
Holding firmly in its bullish channel at €555/tonne on the November Euronext contract. Ukraine is the usual European OSR supplier at this time of year — with exports severely disrupted the structural lack of goods is providing independent support. Crude oil above $90/barrel and European gas approaching €75/MWh maintain the energy-oilseed link.
The Week Ahead
US markets reopen today after Labor Day with Friday's September USDA WASDE the dominant scheduled event. Private estimates are 8.6 million tonnes below USDA on global wheat with significant corn yield cuts anticipated. Fund positioning now net-long wheat for the first time in four years means any bullish USDA surprise is amplified considerably.
Norfolk & East Anglian Context
The Baltic 300% tariff threat on Russian grain is directly relevant to competing supply flows. Every alternative Russian export corridor that closes redirects demand toward Western European and UK origin. The Saudi cancellation should not be read as a price ceiling — it is a sovereign procurement gamble on peace that may prove costly if the Black Sea does not reopen as Riyadh is assuming.
Opinion
Funds net-long wheat for the first time in four years. A 29,000 contract swing in a single week. This is the professional money making a four-year positioning statement about where wheat prices are going — not a tactical trade but a fundamental reassessment. When the largest participants in the futures market swing this decisively, it reflects genuine conviction about the supply outlook.
Saudi Arabia passing on its tender is either brilliant procurement strategy or an expensive gamble. Zelensky says winter. The Baltic corridor is closing. Early September exports confirm no operational improvement. The weight of evidence does not favour Riyadh's optimism about a quick resolution.
The Baltic 300% tariff is the week's most underreported story. Russia rerouting through Latvia was one of the few functioning alternatives to the closed Black Sea. If Baltic governments close it — which a 300% tariff effectively does — the already limited alternatives narrow further and demand concentrates on Western European and UK origin.
US markets reopen today into a week containing a USDA report expected to be bullish. Friday cannot come soon enough.