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The UK economy is forecast to grow by more than previously expected this year before higher energy prices and interest rates hit growth in 2027, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said.
Ukraine has stabilised the front line and "broken Russia's ability to advance" by killing so many of its men, Ukraine's former commander-in-chief has said.
Andy Burnham is "ready to sign new EU deal next month - as he attacks Brexit 'damage”.
Donald Trump has claimed Vladimir Putin "wants to make a deal more than Volodymyr Zelenskyy" after accusing both Russia and Ukraine of breaking his energy ceasefire.
Daily Market Update
Wheat
A quiet consolidation session as markets digested Friday’s USDA shock. London November 2026 edged up 25p to £206.25, May 2027 gained 75p to £215.50, November 2027 eased £1.00 to £203.25, and Paris/Matif December added 1.25 euros to €243.25. The euro falling to a new low of 1.1150 in session and rebounding crude oil provided mechanical support to Euronext, partially offsetting the lingering corn-driven bearish overhang from Friday.
Algeria launched a new tender — a positive physical demand signal that confirmed European origins will be actively solicited given Russian and Ukrainian logistical difficulties. French wheat is not accepted by Algeria but other European origins will benefit. Russian wheat FOB prices rose $2 last week to approximately $268 — a modest increase reflecting some tightening at origin even as export volumes remain severely constrained.
Trump’s energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine has not held — Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure continued through the weekend. The market’s scepticism about presidential announcements is now so entrenched that the failure to materialise barely registered as a price event. The physical reality — Russian wheat exports at a five-year low, Baltic corridors under threat, port infrastructure damaged — remains entirely unchanged.
The USDA Corn Debate
The 181.2 bushels per acre corn yield remains the most contested single number in global commodity markets. Funds sold 62,000 contracts post-report but remain net long and nervous — a precarious position given the scepticism about the yield estimate with 50-60% of the US crop still in the field. Corn edged higher Monday as chart support and some fund re-buying provided a technical floor, but the December contract needs to close above its 100-day moving average to consolidate. Today’s delayed crop progress and ratings data — postponed from Monday due to Columbus Day — will be the first real-time update on whether the USDA’s optimistic yield call has any field-level support.
South American weather remains benign with El Niño not yet meaningfully impacting — a modest bearish offset for global supply that limits the upside in corn and soybeans.
Energy & Geopolitics
Saudi-Houthi conflict escalating with the US discussing potential involvement — crude oil at its highest level in two weeks in New York. Middle East energy tensions are reasserting as a commodity market driver just as Black Sea diplomatic hopes are fading. The energy-grain price link that dominated in the spring is partially reactivating through this channel.
Rapeseed
Deferred contracts closed lower on spread operations despite the broadly supportive environment — technical positioning rather than fundamental deterioration. The November 2026 expiry approaching October 30th continues to distort the nearby contract. Deferred maturities remain the relevant commercial reference.
Opinion
The USDA said corn yields went up. The field data said they went down. Fifty to sixty percent of the crop is still in the ground. In six weeks one of them will be right and one will require a significant revision. The funds sold 62,000 contracts on Friday and bought some back Monday — they do not know either. The crop progress and ratings data due today is the first real evidence update since the USDA’s controversial call. Watch it carefully.
Algeria tendering while not accepting French wheat is a reminder that trade flow realignment has its own internal politics — France’s diplomatic tensions with Algeria mean French origin is excluded even as French wheat becomes globally competitive. Romanian, Bulgarian and other EU origins will fill that gap. UK origin is also a potential beneficiary depending on price and specification.
Euro at 1.1150 — another new low. Down 4% in a month. The mechanical support this provides to Euronext prices is not trivial. Every 1% decline in the euro translates directly into higher euro-denominated grain prices even with flat underlying fundamentals. This currency tailwind is durable as long as the dollar remains strong on Fed rate expectations — and with US inflation elevated, that could be some time.
Saudi-Houthi escalating with possible US involvement. If the US joins that conflict directly, a third simultaneous military engagement alongside Iran and the Black Sea situation creates a geopolitical risk premium environment with no modern parallel. File under watch very carefully.