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UK government approves Jackdaw gas field and says production will start this month.
Inflation increased to 3.5% in the year to September, new figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show, driven by rising fuel prices.
US special envoy Steve Witkoff has arrived in Russia for his meeting with President Vladimir Putin, where the two will discuss proposals on ending Russia's years-long conflict with Ukraine.
Musk apparently ordered the slowdown of Ukraine's key Starlink access.
Daily Market Update
Wheat
A sharp deterioration across all contracts. May 2027 lost £2.00 to £213.50 — the primary benchmark now that November 2026 is approaching expiry — and November 2027 dropped £2.25 to £200.00. Paris/Matif December reversed early gains of €247.50 to close €2.00 lower at €241.50 with March 2027 falling harder at €2.75, returning December to a small premium over March. Chicago SRW December at $6.43 — at the bottom of its session range and at levels not seen since summer.
The self-fuelling nature of the current sell-off is the key concern. Fund liquidation is driving prices lower, poor export data is justifying the selling, and the move is bringing all products back to summer levels regardless of the underlying supply picture. US wheat export inspections of 240,000 tonnes missed the 350,000 tonne expected — export pace now 36% below last year. Funds cut wheat longs by 9,000-10,000 contracts in the week to October 13th with further liquidation likely.
Against this, Russian October wheat exports are now estimated at just 2 million tonnes against 5.5 million last October — a 64% year-on-year collapse at peak export season. The cumulative Black Sea export deficit is extraordinary and growing monthly. The market is currently pricing Chicago harvest pressure, not Russian export reality. These two things cannot remain disconnected indefinitely.
The US government announced $8 billion in farm aid to address high diesel costs — perceived as an incentive to plant more winter wheat this autumn, a modestly bearish 2027 supply signal. Winter wheat planting is at 63% — close to the 64% expected — with funds having cut wheat longs by around 9,000-10,000 contracts.
European Corn — Still the Exception
The only agricultural commodity firming on Euronext. The November 2026 contract approached €300 again — less than 10 days from expiry — as French collectors report difficulty sourcing necessary volumes. Record price differentials between French corn and all other European and international origins are forcing demand rationing and import substitution. The harvest is essentially complete even in the usually later English Channel coastal and eastern regions — the drought-accelerated pace has definitively confirmed the catastrophic production outcome. High corn prices at these levels are the most direct bullish signal available for UK feed wheat demand — substitution is active and ongoing.
Rapeseed
February 2027 at €545 — its lowest close since August 27th. Canola has broken 800 CAD/tonne in Winnipeg and soybeans previously broke $12.80/bushel support in Chicago. The oilseed complex is under broad technical selling pressure. A Bloomberg-reported 612,000 tonne soybean flash sale to China failed to lift markets — when significant positive news cannot move prices higher, the bearish momentum is strong. Rapeseed oil was the sole oilseed product in the green.
Opinion
Russian October exports at 2 million tonnes versus 5.5 million last year. This number is extraordinary and barely features in the daily market narrative — overwhelmed by harvest pressure from Chicago. The market is making a choice to price the bearish near-term story over the bullish medium-term one. That is a legitimate market response to current conditions. It is also the kind of disconnect that eventually corrects sharply.
May 2027 at £213.50 is the contract that matters for forward marketing decisions. It has held relatively better than nearby contracts through this correction — the carry between May and November 2027 at £13.50 continues to signal forward supply tightening even as the near-term suffers. The post-Christmas constructive view we discussed last week remains embedded in the curve even if current selling pressure obscures it.
The $8 billion US farm aid package addresses diesel costs directly — if it lifts winter wheat planting intentions, it is a modest bearish 2027 supply signal. But $8 billion does not fix the Black Sea, the 36% export deficit or the cumulative supply destruction of the past season. It is farm income support dressed as a supply response.
When significant positive news — 612,000 tonnes of soybean sales to China — produces no market reaction, the bearish momentum is in control. That changes when the selling exhausts itself or a genuine bullish catalyst arrives. Neither has happened yet.