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The US state department has ordered some diplomats and the families of US government employees to leave Saudi Arabia, as the gulf kingdom faces a barrage of near-daily attacks, with at least three people killed at an airport and oilfield on Wednesday evening.
The UK government has just approved the Jackdaw gasfield in the North Sea, clearing the way for production to begin as early as this winter.
Russia agrees to Ukraine talks but sees little to talk about in new peace push.
"You talk so much about my president, President Trump, being a humanitarian. You are a humanitarian also, sir” said Witkoff to Putin.
Daily Market Update
Wheat
A severe sell-off across all contracts. London November 2026 crashed £5.25 to £195.50, May 2027 fell £6.00 to £207.50, November 2027 dropped £4.50 to £195.50, and Paris/Matif December shed 8.75 euros to €232.75 — its lowest level since 11th August. These are extraordinarily large single-session moves that reflect fund liquidation accelerating through stop-loss levels rather than any fundamental deterioration in the supply picture. The self-fuelling nature of the decline has brought prices to levels not seen since before the conflict escalated in spring.
May 2027 at £207.50 is the primary marketing reference with November 2026 coming off the board. November 2027 at £195.50 is the new crop benchmark. Both are a long way from the highs of August and September but are still pricing a market that has undergone genuine and historic supply destruction — the question is how much of the correction is justified by fundamentals and how much is pure positioning unwind.
The physical picture has not changed. Three vessels hit in the Black Sea in 24 hours — attack frequency increasing. Bulgaria’s 5 million tonnes ready to ship but unable to move. Russia exporting an estimated 2 million tonnes in October versus 5.5 million last year — a 64% collapse at peak export season. EU soft wheat exports at 9.5 million tonnes are running ahead of last year, confirming European origin is actively filling the Black Sea gap. None of this moved markets yesterday. The session was entirely driven by fund positioning.
French soft wheat planting has reached 22% — finally at the five-year average after lagging all month. A positive 2027 establishment signal.
European Corn — Expiry Approaching
The November 2026 Euronext corn contract remains above €295/tonne with less than a week to expiry — the extreme nearby premium versus deferred contracts reflecting acute physical shortage. French collectors unable to source required volumes. March 2027 at approximately €275 is the relevant forward reference as the November contract exits the board. Euronext corn held considerably better than wheat in Wednesday’s session — the structural physical deficit providing an independent floor that the wheat market currently lacks.
Rapeseed
Further deterioration as the broader sell-off swept through the oilseed complex. February 2027 now well below the €550 support broken earlier this week. Canola below 800 CAD/tonne in Winnipeg. The structural supply case remains intact but the technical damage is significant and momentum is firmly negative.
US Markets
The source of Wednesday’s selling — Chicago fund liquidation at pace across all products. Dry Corn Belt weather is accelerating harvest with Monday’s crop progress report expected to show meaningful advancement. The early November WASDE is the next scheduled catalyst — the corn yield debate between the USDA’s 181.2 bushels per acre and field experience of 179-180 the central number to watch. A downward revision would be the bullish catalyst the market needs to break the liquidation cycle.
Opinion
May 2027 down £6. November 2027 down £4.50. Paris down 8.75 euros to its lowest since August. In a single session. The supply picture did not change by that amount yesterday — Black Sea vessel attacks continued, Russian October exports remain 64% below last year, EU exports are running ahead of schedule. This is positioning, not fundamentals.
That said, the scale of the move demands respect. When markets fall this hard this fast, asking when it stops is more useful than insisting it shouldn’t be happening. The answer is usually when the selling exhausts itself or a genuine bullish catalyst arrives. The early November USDA is the most likely scheduled catalyst — a corn yield cut and further Ukrainian export downgrade could produce a sharp short-covering bounce from deeply oversold levels.
November 2027 at £195.50 represents significant value relative to the confirmed supply destruction of this season — UK harvest at historic lows, EU down 20%, US at 1970 production lows, Black Sea exports collapsed. At some point that fundamental reality reasserts. The timing is the only genuine uncertainty.
EU exports running ahead of last year while futures crash is the clearest possible signal that physical buyers and futures funds are currently living in different markets. Physical buyers know what the grain is worth. The futures market will eventually agree with them.