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Daily Market Update
Wheat
Another difficult session extending last week’s sharp losses. May 2027 fell £2.25 to £205.75, November 2027 dropped 75p to £196.50, and Paris/Matif December lost 7.50 euros to €226.50. The selling pressure that has dominated since mid-October shows little sign of exhausting itself — fund liquidation continues to overwhelm the physical supply narrative with markets now at levels not seen since the early spring before the conflict escalated.
May 2027 at £205.75 is the primary marketing reference. November 2027 at £196.50 is the new crop benchmark — approaching the psychologically significant £195 level that will attract attention if breached. Paris at €226.50 represents a dramatic retracement from the September highs above €250.
The physical reality remains entirely disconnected from the futures market direction. Russia’s October wheat exports are confirmed at approximately 2 million tonnes against 5.5 million last October — a 64% collapse. EU soft wheat exports are running at 9.5 million tonnes, ahead of last year, confirming European origin continues to fill the Black Sea gap in world markets. Black Sea attacks continued over the weekend with no diplomatic progress. The October corridor talks have produced nothing concrete with Lavrov’s rejection of the 2022 framework remaining the operative Russian position.
French soft wheat planting has advanced to 28% — ahead of the five-year average of 24%. Good planting conditions in France through late October are providing genuine agronomic relief and a meaningfully positive 2027 establishment development.
European Corn — Post-Expiry
The November 2026 contract has now expired. Attention shifts entirely to March 2027 at approximately €272-275/tonne as the nearby reference. The acute nearby premium has disappeared with expiry but the structural European feed grain deficit is unchanged — EU corn imports running 29% above last year confirms the physical shortfall is being covered by imports at significant cost.
Rapeseed
Continued weakness with the February 2027 contract under pressure below €550 support. Rhine water levels improving modestly but insufficient to reverse the technical damage. Canadian canola struggling to hold above 795 CAD/tonne. The broader sell-off is overwhelming the structural supply support.
US Markets
Continued fund selling with harvest pressure and poor export performance the justifications. The early November WASDE remains the next major catalyst — the corn yield debate between the USDA’s 181.2 bushels per acre and field experience of approximately 179-180 the central question. Harvest is accelerating in dry Corn Belt conditions with tonight’s crop progress report expected to show significant advancement. Chinese soybean purchases continue but are insufficient to lift markets against the selling tide.
Opinion
May 2027 at £205.75 and Paris at €226.50 — the market is pricing out a significant portion of the supply premium that built through spring and summer. The physical supply destruction has not been reversed. Russia is exporting 64% less than last October. EU exports are running ahead of last year because buyers have no choice but to source elsewhere. Black Sea attacks continued this weekend. None of that changed on Monday.
What has changed is fund positioning — the enormous long positions built through the geopolitical premium are being systematically unwound. That process is not yet complete and the early November USDA is the scheduled event most likely to either accelerate or arrest it.
French planting ahead of the five-year average is the most genuinely positive domestic agricultural news of the month. After a season of unrelenting weather and supply problems, getting winter wheat into the ground well is commercially and agronomically important. If November cooperates, France enters 2027 with better establishment than the market is currently crediting.
November 2027 at £196.50 — approaching levels where the fundamental value argument becomes increasingly compelling relative to confirmed global supply destruction. The timing of the turn is uncertain. The direction of the turn is not.