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US citizens will receive $5,000 if Republicans win midterms, Trump claims in lengthy convention speech.
Russia has fired a series of overnight strikes after Ukraine said it hit western Siberia - more than 1,800 miles across the border. Long-range strikes are becoming a "nightmare" for Moscow.
Trump claims war will end after midterms - but advisers reportedly tell him it could last his entire term.
Russia's new jet-powered drones outpacing Ukraine's air defences with daily launches.
Daily Market Update
Wheat
Values faded through the session with London November 2026 falling £2.50 to £212.50, November 2027 unchanged at £205.50, and Paris/Matif December easing 2.50 euros to €244.75. Pre-USDA profit taking and long position reduction dominated as funds moved to secure accumulated gains ahead of tomorrow's report. Russia hinting at a continued diplomatic path for Ukraine provided additional justification for selling — though Ukraine simultaneously launched further attacks on Novorossiysk, confirming the physical reality remains entirely unchanged.
Russian wheat export forecasts have been cut a further 3.2 million tonnes to 41.4 million tonnes for 2026/27 — a significant downward revision that will need to be reflected in tomorrow's USDA balance sheet. The gap between official USDA export figures and what physical trade data is showing continues to narrow but has not yet closed. Tomorrow's report will be the first opportunity for the USDA to properly incorporate the full scale of Black Sea infrastructure damage into its official numbers.
Chicago HRW December approached $8.00/bushel to the downside with SRW back below $7.30 — both testing important technical areas coinciding with July highs. The technical significance of holding these support levels ahead of tomorrow's report is considerable — a bullish USDA could produce a sharp bounce from here while a bearish surprise risks breaking through meaningful support.
Buyer repositioning toward European and Western origins continues. Bulgarian, Romanian and French ports are seeing dynamic activity as weeks of Black Sea closure concentrate import demand on available alternatives. French wheat has gained price attractiveness relative to the CVB zone — positive for EU export programme momentum heading into the autumn shipping season. Trump's recent telephone conversation with Putin is being monitored by US operators but has produced no tangible change in the market situation.
UK Farmers' Cropping Dilemma
An important domestic dimension is emerging. UK farmers face a genuine dilemma about cropping decisions as gross margins are analysed against rising input costs and a trend toward drier, hotter summers. The combination of this season's historic domestic harvest failure, elevated input costs and increasingly unpredictable weather patterns is forcing a fundamental reassessment of what to grow and at what scale. For a Norfolk grain merchant, understanding how local area decisions unfold this autumn is as commercially important as the global supply picture.
Rapeseed & Canola
Statistics Canada data showing canola stocks up year on year and hopes for increased next year's harvest pushed canola slightly lower. Euronext rapeseed rose above €560/tonne during the session before settling slightly lower — the structural supply case is intact with crude oil firm and rapeseed oil prices recovering from the previous day's decline. The €560 resistance level is being repeatedly tested and will likely break to the upside when the next bullish catalyst arrives.
US Markets — Pre-USDA Positioning
Corn down for a fifth consecutive session despite a 180,000 tonne flash sale to Mexico — still significantly above August levels but funds reducing length ahead of Friday. Some independent crop forecasts suggesting US production and yields above USDA numbers are adding to pre-report nerves — a bearish counterpoint to the consensus expectation of cuts. Argentina's Rosario Stock Exchange announced an upward revision to corn production, adding a modestly bearish South American supply datapoint. Soybeans rangebound with the November 2026 contract closing just under $13.10/bushel despite a 440,000 tonne flash sale — most already announced for China. Chinese buying in accordance with trade agreement commitments continues to provide underlying soybean support.
Opinion
Ukraine attacking Novorossiysk while Russia hints at diplomatic paths. The two things are happening simultaneously and the market is trying to decide which to price. The answer, as always in this conflict, is to price the physical reality — and the physical reality is that Novorossiysk is being attacked not repaired.
Russian export forecasts cut another 3.2 million tonnes to 41.4 million tonnes. This figure keeps moving lower with each passing week as the cumulative impact of infrastructure attacks, insurance withdrawal and logistical collapse is quantified. The USDA's current figure is almost certainly still too high — tomorrow's report should close the gap, but the question is by how much.
Some independent forecasters suggesting US corn yields above USDA estimates is the bearish counterpoint the market needed to justify profit taking. Whether these forecasts prove accurate will be determined by harvest data in coming weeks — but ahead of a USDA report, the uncertainty they create is sufficient to prompt selling from funds sitting on record long positions. Argentina's Rosario upward corn revision adds to the cautious pre-report mood.
UK farmers facing a cropping dilemma is the story that will define the local procurement market next season. When growers cannot make gross margins work on their traditional crop mix, they switch — and what they switch to or away from determines what arrives at the grain store next harvest. Understanding the local conversation around gross margins is as important as the global supply picture for planning merchant buying programmes.
Tomorrow could be the most important scheduled market event in weeks. Position today accordingly.