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The Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen have captured another city by the strategic Bab el Mandeb Strait, possibly creating another headache for America and its allies.
Russia and Ukraine have each carried out strikes overnight, with Kyiv continuing its tactic of targeting a major e-commerce company.
The UK's economy grew faster than expected in July partly helped by businesses using artificial intelligence (AI). The economy expanded by 0.4%, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said, whereas economists had predicted no growth.
The price of oil has jumped to $105 a barrel amid signs the conflict in the Middle East will not be resolved quickly, fuelling fears that inflation could accelerate.
Daily Market Update
Wheat
A quiet but positive European session. London November 2026 gained 25p to £212.75, November 2027 up £1.25 to £206.75, and Paris/Matif December edged up 0.50 euros to €245.25. Markets found support in the wake of surging crude oil prices and a weaker euro rather than any fresh Black Sea development — the physical situation remains entirely unchanged with daily attacks on both Russian and Ukrainian port infrastructure continuing. The session was characterised by cautious positioning ahead of today's USDA report rather than conviction in either direction.
Brent crude is testing $110/barrel in London — its highest level since mid-August — as fighting intensifies between Saudi Arabia and Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Houthis have taken the port city of Mocha and are advancing toward the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait which controls Red Sea flows.
Adding a third major shipping chokepoint to the already disrupted Strait of Hormuz and Black Sea would represent an unprecedented level of simultaneous global maritime disruption. The energy market is pricing this risk — grain markets are following in the crude oil's wake.
El Niño probability has been raised to 90% — the highest yet. Southeast Australia is already experiencing dryness that may be an early El Niño signal rather than coincidence. Ukraine is getting increasingly dry. The medium-term supply picture for the Southern Hemisphere 2027 crop is darkening with each passing week.
European Livestock & Forage Crisis
An important domestic dimension for UK and European feed markets. The summer heat is creating a forage and silage crisis for European livestock farmers — particularly cattle. Reduced maize production and lack of forage mean less silage available heading into winter, with the livestock trade asking governments for assistance including tariff-free Ukraine grain imports. This demand pull for feed grains is structural and will persist through the winter feeding season, providing independent support for UK feed wheat and barley values beyond the global supply disruption story.
In France, the hot and dry weather is finalising sunflower harvests rapidly, triggering a very early start to corn harvest, and critically creating serious difficulties with rapeseed emergence for late-sown crops. The 2027 French OSR crop is facing establishment problems before it has even properly started — adding another dimension to the already uncertain European oilseed supply picture for next season.
Today's USDA Report — The Week's Defining Moment
All eyes are on the September WASDE published this evening. Corn is the centre of attention with the USDA's August yield estimate of 180.7 bushels per acre widely expected to be cut — by how much is the critical question given the wide range of private predictions. Funds at record long positions means a bullish surprise amplifies the rally dramatically while a disappointingly small cut risks a sharp unwind. The market's current trajectory suggests the bullish outcome is more likely — but the fund positioning makes the downside scenario particularly dangerous if realised.
China purchased 272,000 tonnes of US soybeans plus a further 206,500 tonnes to unknown destinations yesterday — total Chinese purchases this week exceeding 1 million tonnes with cumulative purchases approaching 13 million tonnes of the 25 million tonne annual target. President Xi's end-of-September US visit is driving accelerated Chinese procurement as a goodwill gesture ahead of the summit. Soybeans hit a new contract high at $13.3350/bushel on November 2026.
Argentine corn exports in August-September are double last year with the crop up 4 million tonnes — providing a modest cap on corn's upside as cheaper South American origin competes for some of the demand that would otherwise flow to the US.
Today — 25 Years Since 9/11
As the US commemorates the 25th anniversary of September 11, 2001, geopolitical tensions are at the forefront of global consciousness. The parallels between today's multiple simultaneous geopolitical disruptions and the profound market uncertainty of that period are not lost on older market participants.
Norfolk & East Anglian Context
The European livestock forage crisis is directly relevant to Norfolk feed grain marketing. Cattle farmers across the UK and Europe facing a silage deficit heading into winter need feed grain to compensate — and with Ukrainian corn unavailable and US and South American corn expensive, UK feed wheat and barley fill a genuine gap in the market. Do not undervalue feed grain in this environment. The rapeseed establishment difficulties in France add to 2027 OSR supply uncertainty that supports forward values for Norfolk growers drilling this autumn.
Opinion
Houthis advancing on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Brent at $110. Black Sea effectively closed. Hormuz disrupted. Three simultaneous maritime chokepoints under threat — a situation with no modern precedent in global trade. The grain market is following oil higher but has not yet fully priced what a third simultaneous shipping route disruption would mean for global food supply chains.
El Niño at 90% probability. Southeast Australia already dry. Ukraine increasingly dry. France's OSR struggling to emerge. The 2027 crop is being compromised across multiple origins before a seed has properly established. The forward values available for November 2027 contracts reflect some of this risk — but 90% El Niño probability into a market already at historically low global stock levels is not yet fully priced.
China at 13 million tonnes of its 25 million tonne soybean pledge with Xi visiting in two weeks. The remaining 12 million tonnes arriving in the market between now and year end is a substantial demand commitment that will keep US soybean exports running well ahead of normal seasonal pace. The soybean market has found its demand story — it is real, it is contracted and it is being delivered on schedule.
The USDA report tonight is the event that will define market direction for the coming two weeks. Hold through it. Whatever the number, the physical supply reality — Black Sea closed, Hormuz restricted, Houthis approaching Bab el-Mandeb, El Niño at 90% — does not change with a single monthly report.
September 11th, 2026. Twenty-five years on from the day that changed the world. Today the world faces a different but equally profound set of geopolitical challenges. Markets will be watching carefully.