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Two of Russia's biggest grain terminals at the southern port of Novorossiysk have suspended operations as a result of overnight Ukrainian drone strikes, four industry sources told Reuters on Wednesday.
Andy Burnham will chair an emergency Cobra meeting in response to extreme heat, which has caused wildfires and plunged many parts of Britain into drought.
The US military says one of its helicopters has fired missiles to disable "the steering gear" of a cargo ship attempting to violate the US blockade of Iranian ports.
China, Japan and the Philippines are reeling from back-to-back storms - Dolphin, Chan-Hom and Peilou - which are churning across the region at the same time.
Daily Market Update
Wheat
A softer session ahead of today's pivotal USDA report. London November 2026 fell £1.50 to £197.00 on a £4.25 intraday range and Paris/Matif December shed 2.75 euros to €227.50 on a 7.75 euro range. No specific bearish catalyst — the decline reflects pre-report long liquidation and book squaring rather than any fundamental shift. Today's August WASDE is the market event of the week and positions are being trimmed ahead of publication.
An important clarification is emerging in market analysis — the recent price surge has been driven primarily by logistics disruption rather than genuine supply shortage. EU production has contributed, but the dominant factor has been the near-closure of Black Sea export infrastructure. Russia's August wheat exports are estimated at just 3-3.4 million tonnes against a normal 5 million tonnes. Ukraine has shipped only 6% of last August's total in the first ten days of this month. Only 21 Black Sea ports are operational compared to 38 a year ago. EU exports are running 57% below last year since July 1st despite some countries — notably Romania with an increased crop — attempting to fill the gap. The wheat exists. It cannot move.
Unofficial rumours of Russia-Ukraine talks in Turkey to establish a new Black Sea safe corridor are circulating — even if agreed, the damage to port infrastructure means only 21 of last year's 38 ports could initially operate. A corridor would help but would not immediately restore normal export flows. Markets responded to the rumour with mild selling — another instance of peace-adjacent news triggering long liquidation.
The Climate Context
July was the hottest month on record for the continental US at 76.9°F, fractionally exceeding the 1936 Dust Bowl record of 76.8°F — a sobering historical comparison. Three of the UK's five worst harvests since records began have occurred since 2020. Europe is warming faster than other global regions with 40°C+ temperatures recorded across France, Spain and Italy this summer causing an estimated €2 billion of crop damage. India's monsoon is running 12% below average. The climate story behind this season's supply failures is structural and accelerating — this is not a one-off bad year.
Norfolk & East Anglian Context
Three of the UK's five worst harvests since 2020 is the statistic that should reframe how Norfolk farmers think about marketing strategy. This is not a cyclical bad year to be waited out — it is an accelerating pattern of climate-driven production failure. Grain held in Norfolk stores is entering a domestic market where supply failures are becoming more frequent, not less. That structural scarcity supports values over the medium term independently of geopolitical developments.
Rapeseed
Four consecutive sessions of gains were reversed yesterday as the November Euronext contract retreated from technical resistance near €540/tonne to close below €535/tonne. A rebound in oil prices failed to provide vegetable oil support — an unusual divergence suggesting the oilseed correction is technically rather than fundamentally driven. The structural supply case for rapeseed remains intact.
US Markets
Broadly lower ahead of today's USDA with corn the exception, closing almost unchanged. Soybeans found some support from fresh Chinese purchases as lower prices are attracting buying consistent with China's trade agreement commitments. Wheat tested a near month-low around $6.27/bushel — Black Sea tensions no longer causing the same market anxiety as in July, with the situation becoming somewhat priced in after weeks of disruption. Today's report will reset the narrative.
Today's USDA Report
The August WASDE is the most significant scheduled data release of the summer. Key watchpoints are the corn yield estimate — currently 183 bushels per acre and widely considered too optimistic given the hottest July on record — and the wheat balance sheet adjustments. Any meaningful corn yield cut would move the entire feed grain complex including UK feed wheat and barley. The report will set the market's directional tone through August and into September.
Opinion
The hottest July on record in the continental US, fractionally exceeding the 1936 Dust Bowl. Three of the UK's five worst harvests since 2020. Europe warming faster than global averages. €2 billion of EU crop damage. India's monsoon 12% below average. The climate context behind this season's supply failures is not background noise — it is the defining agricultural story of the decade and it is accelerating.
The logistics versus supply distinction matters enormously for marketing timing. If current prices are 30% logistics premium and 70% genuine supply shortage, then a Black Sea corridor announcement deflates 30% of the premium while the supply story sustains the rest. If it is 60% logistics and 40% supply shortage, the calculus changes significantly. The evidence from Russian and Ukrainian export data — where FOB prices are actually lower but transport is impossible — suggests the logistics component is larger than many assume. Norfolk growers holding grain should factor this into timing decisions.
Today's USDA corn yield estimate is the number the entire market is focused on. July 2026 being the hottest on record for continental US agriculture does not square with a 183 bushels per acre corn yield. Something has to give — and in August WASDE reports, history suggests the USDA gives considerably.