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Tories accuse Burnham of being ‘dangerous and divisive’ after he confirms Russian interference in Brexit campaign.
Saudi Arabia’s Riyadh airport hit by second Houthi strike, day after 12 killed.
President Volodymyr Zelensky says Russia hit a power plant in Ukraine "immediately after" Donald Trump announced what he called an energy ceasefire.
The prime minister will give a statement in the Commons later today. He will say that the UK needs to be "pragmatic" and not turn away from the "opportunities" of a closer relationship with Europe.
Daily Market Update
Wheat
A quiet Friday until the USDA dropped a bombshell. London November 2026 eased 50p to £206.00, May 2027 down 50p to £214.75, November 2027 unchanged at £204.25, and Paris/Matif December fell 2.25 euros to €242.00. For the week London November lost 75p, November 2027 gained £1.00 and Paris December added 0.50 euros — a broadly flat weekly outcome that masks the extraordinary intraday volatility of Friday’s session.
The USDA’s wheat changes were modest — global stocks barely moved at 276.04 million tonnes versus 276.29 million tonnes last month. Russian wheat exports were cut 3 million tonnes to 40 million tonnes — a five-year low — with Argentina and Canada exports raised partially offsetting.
European wheat stocks for June 2027 fell to 11.7 million tonnes from 13.5 million last month and 19 million tonnes estimated for June 2026 — a significant and accelerating drawdown. Wheat suffered from spillover selling pressure from the corn shock rather than its own bearish fundamentals.
Algeria has returned to purchases at the start of this week — a positive physical demand signal that should provide some support at today’s open.
The Corn Shock
The USDA’s corn number was the most significant single WASDE surprise in years. Instead of the widely expected yield cut of at least 0.5 bushels per acre, the USDA revised corn yield UP by 2.7 bushels per acre to 181.2 bushels per acre — one of the strongest upward October revisions ever recorded. This translates to 6 million tonnes of additional US production at 407.3 million tonnes — the second-best US corn harvest on record. Chicago corn hit limit down approaching -30 cents before closing around -20 cents. Funds were heavily long, were wrong, and liquidated aggressively — a painful and rapid unwind. Friday’s close below the 100-day moving average is a technically significant bearish signal.
The market’s scepticism is legitimate — 50-60% of the US corn crop remains to be harvested and the USDA’s October upward revision runs directly counter to field reports, media coverage and crop rating deterioration. Whether this yield estimate survives contact with the remaining harvest will be the defining question for corn markets through October and November.
Global corn stocks jumped to 280.44 million tonnes from 272.10 million — the largest monthly increase of the season, driven entirely by the US yield revision.
Soybeans
Managed to close slightly higher despite a yield revision to 53.1 bushels per acre from 52.8 — US production now at a record 124.15 million tonnes. Strong crushing and export demand kept stocks unchanged year on year at 8.6 million tonnes. The resilience of soybeans versus corn’s collapse reflects a genuinely tighter demand-driven balance sheet.
Weekend Developments
The US purchasing Russian diesel oil over the weekend is a surprising geopolitical development that partially changes the diplomatic landscape. Trump simultaneously announced an energy truce between Russia and Ukraine — which has not yet materialised in practice. These developments have not yet been priced by markets and could provide direction today, particularly if the energy truce gains any traction.
Norfolk & East Anglian Context
European wheat stocks for June 2027 falling to 11.7 million tonnes from 19 million tonnes estimated for June 2026 is the balance sheet number that matters most for UK grain values through the season. The USDA is now officially forecasting a dramatic drawdown in European wheat carry-out — a number that confirms the structural tightness that has been building all season. French soft wheat planting at just 4% complete — behind last year and the five-year average — adds a 2027 crop establishment concern on top of the tightening current season balance sheet.
Opinion
The USDA increasing corn yield when 50-60% of the crop is still in the field and crop ratings have been deteriorating is the kind of October call that either looks prescient or looks very wrong in six weeks time. The professional money — funds heavily long — were not prepared to wait and find out. Limit down. One of the strongest upward October revisions ever. Field reports saying the opposite. Something will need to reconcile.
European wheat stocks at 11.7 million tonnes for June 2027 versus 19 million tonnes estimated for June 2026. That is a 38% drawdown in a single season. The USDA is now officially forecasting European supply tightening of extraordinary magnitude — and this is before accounting for French planting at 4% complete and winter crop establishment challenges across the continent.
The US buying Russian diesel while Trump announces an energy truce is the geopolitical development that needs careful interpretation. America buying Russian fuel while sanctioning Iran is a policy combination that reflects energy price politics rather than strategic coherence. If the energy truce holds and extends to port infrastructure, the Black Sea logistics premium deflates. If it is another announcement without operational consequence, the physical export data — Russian wheat exports at a five-year low of 40 million tonnes — remains the market’s real reference point.
Algeria returning to purchases today. European stocks forecast to fall 38% this season. Russia’s export forecast cut to a five-year low. The USDA corn shock dominated Friday but the wheat story remains structurally bullish — it just needs the corn-driven overhang to clear before it can reassert.