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Elon Musk has suggested that the US government may be behind restrictions on the speed at which some of Ukraine's weapons can travel and stay connected to SpaceX's Starlink internet network.
Volodymyr Zelensky has turned on Donald Trump, launching a personal attack on the US president and pledging to resume strikes on Russian oil refineries.
US inflation rose by more than expected in the year to September, according to official figures, in the final data release before the midterm elections next month.
Half of the UK population say there are no circumstances in which they would go to war for Britain, a poll suggests.
Daily Market Update
Wheat
Continuing its quiet grind higher. London November 2026 gained 25p to £206.75, November 2027 up 25p to £202.50, and Paris/Matif December added 2.50 euros to €248.25. The price increase is easing from front to far contracts on Euronext — a sign of renewed physical demand in port areas rather than purely speculative momentum. Black Sea tensions remain elevated with ongoing strikes keeping the export disruption firmly in place.
FranceAgriMer published updated French balance sheets. Soft wheat ending stocks are forecast at 2.714 million tonnes — down from 3.007 million tonnes last month. French corn stocks are at 1.131 million tonnes against 1.465 million last month and 1.971 million tonnes in 2025/26 — a dramatic drawdown reflecting the season’s catastrophic corn harvest. Ukraine’s total exports since July 1st stand at just 3.13 million tonnes — down 44% year on year. Private estimates for Ukrainian corn exports are now 18-19 million tonnes against the USDA’s 22 million tonne forecast, and wheat exports at 11 million tonnes against the USDA’s 12.5 million tonnes — the USDA continues to overestimate Ukrainian export capacity.
European Corn
The Euronext November 2026 corn contract closed above €300/tonne for the first time — gaining €14 on the session with the gap to deferred contracts continuing to widen. French corn at 7.3 million tonnes is just over 50% of last year’s crop. At these prices, European compound feed manufacturers are actively looking at feed wheat as a partial substitute — high corn prices directly support demand for UK feed wheat as an alternative energy source in rations.
Australian & Canadian Harvest Concerns
Australian harvest is being delayed by wet weather. Western Canadian prairies — which looked promising in June — experienced 40 consecutive dry days followed by heavy rain, with malting barley now showing reports of up to 30% pregermination and oat quality being downgraded. Canadian malting barley quality failure is directly relevant for UK malting markets — reduced Canadian supply of specification malting barley tightens the global pool and supports premium values for clean UK malting grain.
Rapeseed
The February 2027 contract continues to fail at the €560/tonne resistance — crude oil stalling at $95/barrel is limiting the energy-driven upside. The structural supply case remains intact but the market needs a fresh catalyst to break through the technical ceiling.
US Markets
Quiet range trading with the dollar at an 18-month high — a persistent headwind for US export competitiveness. The key corn data: harvest at 33% complete — the slowest pace in seven years against a five-year average of 39% — with field yield estimates emerging at 179.3 bushels per acre, below the USDA’s controversial 181.2 figure. EU corn is now approximately $3/bushel above US — raising hopes of US corn export demand improving. China confirmed purchase of 470,000 tonnes of US soybeans but the confirmation was already priced from rumour, triggering some profit taking. Corn holding support at $4.80/bushel on December.
Opinion
Euronext corn above €300. European compound feed manufacturers are paying over €300 per tonne for a commodity that was €200 eighteen months ago. The structural consequences — feed rationing, substitution toward wheat and barley, livestock herd reductions — are cascading through the European food supply chain in real time. High corn prices at €300 are the most direct bullish signal for UK feed wheat demand that the market can provide.
Canadian malting barley with 30% pregermination rates is the quality story that will matter most for UK malting barley premiums this season and potentially next. The global pool of specification malting barley — already reduced by difficult UK and European harvests — has now taken a further hit from Canadian quality failures. Clean UK malting barley meeting specification is a scarcer commodity than the volume statistics suggest.
Field yield estimates for US corn at 179.3 bushels per acre versus the USDA’s 181.2. The gap is small but directionally significant — the market is gradually building the case for a November USDA downward revision. With harvest at the slowest pace in seven years and rain forecast to slow it further, the final yield picture will not be clear for several more weeks.
Ukraine’s exports at 3.13 million tonnes versus last year’s 5.6 million tonnes for the same period. USDA export forecasts for Ukraine still too high by private estimates. Each monthly WASDE that closes the gap between official and physical reality is another bullish revision.
Dollar at 18-month highs. This is the headwind that keeps US wheat from competing in world markets and keeps European and UK origin commercially attractive to global buyers. It is not going away quickly given Fed rate policy.