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Boris Johnson has hit out at Vladimir Putin after a Russian drone targeted the railway line he was travelling on near the polish border.
Poland launched military air operations to secure its airspace in the early hours of Tuesday as Russia attacked Ukraine with jet-powered drones.
Donald Trump has again insisted Iran "badly" wants a deal. His latest claim comes as concerns over energy supply grow after attacks around oil routes in the Middle East, with the Iran-backed Houthis claiming further advances.
A drone attack launched from inside Iraq has damaged the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia, forcing it to shut temporarily, and threatening global oil supply.
Daily Market Update
Wheat
A softer session as the USDA's bearish Friday report continued to weigh. London November 2026 fell £1.75 to £208.00, November 2027 gained 25p to £204.75, and Paris/Matif December eased just 0.50 euros to €240.50. The USDA surprised markets with higher global wheat stocks — a bearish outcome relative to the consensus expectation of tightening — combined with reports that Russia and Ukraine have allegedly agreed not to attack each other's energy facilities. The energy ceasefire, if it holds and extends to agricultural export infrastructure, would be the most significant diplomatic development of the conflict for grain markets. That is a large if — but the market is pricing some probability of it.
The physical reality beneath the diplomatic signals remains stark. Russian wheat exports for July-August combined totalled just 4.2 million tonnes against 8 million tonnes last year — a 47% collapse over two months at what should be the seasonal export peak. Ukraine's wheat crop has been revised up 2.4 million tonnes to 25 million tonnes, but exports were simultaneously cut 2 million tonnes to 10.5 million tonnes — confirming that the problem is infrastructure and logistics not production. Russian wheat offers fell $5 this week, reflecting the domestic oversupply building behind closed ports. Chicago SRW December tested $7.10/bushel — its lowest level in three weeks.
Trump is explicitly calling for an end to drone attacks on energy installations across Ukraine and Russia, framing the energy price spike as caused by the two countries rather than Iran. The political direction of travel — pushing for energy infrastructure protection — could, if successful, create a template for extending protection to agricultural export infrastructure. Markets are watching this carefully while remaining appropriately sceptical given the track record of diplomatic promises in this conflict.
Russian wheat offers down $5 is a concrete commercial signal of the domestic supply glut building behind the Black Sea blockage. When Russia's largest wheat exporters are cutting offers by $5 in a week, the pressure to find export routes is intensifying — which makes any corridor agreement more rather than less likely over time, even if it remains distant today.
USDA September Report — The Surprise
The report delivered a bearish wheat surprise with higher global stocks than expected — the gap between private forecasts and official USDA numbers has moved in the wrong direction for bulls on this occasion. USDA corn yield was cut to 178.5 bushels per acre — below the 180.7 August estimate but above some of the most bearish private forecasts — moderately bullish for corn but not the dramatic cut that record fund length had been anticipating. The initial selling reaction to the report appears to have been overdone with corn and soybeans recovering Monday while wheat remained under pressure.
Ukraine's wheat crop raised 2.4 million tonnes to 25 million tonnes but exports cut 2 million tonnes to 10.5 million tonnes — the USDA is belatedly acknowledging the export disruption story that physical trade data has been telling for months. With private estimates at 10.5 million tonnes and the USDA now at 12.5 million tonnes, there remains further downside to official Ukrainian export figures in coming months.
Rapeseed
Closed slightly above €550/tonne — holding its bullish channel despite the broader wheat weakness. Energy support from crude oil above $90 and tight European supply fundamentals are maintaining the floor. French OSR emergence difficulties from late sowing add a 2027 supply dimension. Canadian harvest is being delayed by heavy rain — adding near-term supply tightness to the canola complex.
US Markets
Corn and soybeans recovered from the initial USDA sell-off with corn closing at $5.33/bushel on December and soybeans returning above $13/bushel on November. Eight percent of corn and 6% of soybeans are now harvested — early stages with harvest pressure building gradually. Soybean meal posted a new contract high on December — the strongest performer in the complex. Crop ratings held at 58% good/excellent for soybeans. Spring wheat 93% harvested with winter wheat planting at 8% — 6 points ahead of last week.
Norfolk & East Anglian Context
The energy infrastructure ceasefire rumour is the development Norfolk growers should monitor most carefully this week. If Trump successfully pushes both sides toward protecting energy infrastructure and the principle extends to agricultural export infrastructure, the Black Sea logistics premium embedded in current prices deflates rapidly. November 2026 at £208 reflects both a genuine production shortage premium and a logistics premium — understanding which you are selling matters for marketing timing decisions. The production shortage premium — UK at 12 million tonnes, EU down 20%, US at 178.5 bushels per acre — is more durable. The logistics premium is finite and event-dependent.
Opinion
The USDA delivering a bearish wheat surprise while simultaneously Russia and Ukraine allegedly agree not to attack energy infrastructure is the worst possible combination for wheat longs — official stocks higher than expected and a peace signal on the same day. The market sold off accordingly and the question now is whether either development has enough substance to sustain the move lower.
On the stocks surprise — the USDA has been consistently behind private estimates all season in recognising the supply deterioration. A single month where official figures surprise to the bullish side does not necessarily mean the private estimates are wrong. Watch next month's revision carefully.
On the energy infrastructure deal — Russia and Ukraine agreeing not to bomb each other's power stations while continuing to attack each other's ports, troops and cities is a very specific and limited arrangement. The precedent is interesting but the extension to agricultural export corridors is far from automatic. Trump pushing explicitly for the energy ceasefire suggests US diplomatic pressure is being applied — but applied pressure in this conflict has produced limited results to date.
Russian offers down $5. July-August exports at half last year's pace. Ukraine exports cut to 10.5 million tonnes. The physical supply disruption is not over. The USDA's higher stocks estimate is one report — the physical trade data is weeks of evidence. One of them needs to be revised and history in this conflict suggests it will be the official estimate.
USDA corn yield at 178.5 bushels per acre versus the 180.7 August estimate. A cut, but modest. The harvest at 8% complete will provide the real answer over the coming weeks — and early results will be watched very carefully.