Menu
Headlines
France's Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu is holding a crisis cabinet meeting on Monday to assess a weekend of violence and looting across the country, in what were some of the worst scenes of public disorder in modern French history.
US President Donald Trump has said his decision to suspend several Russian sanctions is an effort to keep Moscow at the negotiating table.
China's economic growth picked up in the three months to the end of September, rebounding from a three-year low as the artificial intelligence (AI) boom helped boost exports.
At least one person has been killed in an overnight attack on St Petersburg that successfully targeted two of the city's oil facilities.
Daily Market Update
Wheat
A difficult end to the week with selling pressure intensifying on Friday. London November 2026 fell 50p to £205.00, November 2027 down 25p to £202.00, and Paris/Matif December lost 2.50 euros to €243.75. For the week London November lost £1.00, November 2027 fell £2.25 and Paris December added 1.75 euros — a mixed weekly outcome that reflects the tug of war between geopolitical support and technical resistance that has characterised the past fortnight.
The sell-off came despite WTI crude breaking above $100/barrel on Friday on fresh US-Iran escalation fears — grains decoupling from energy on this occasion as harvest pressure, export disappointments and profit taking from the elevated Matif long position (143,500 contracts) dominated. Chicago SRW December broke its $6.70/bushel support — a technically significant breach that will attract further algorithm-driven selling today. Weekly US wheat export sales of just 320,000 tonnes were described as disappointing, adding fundamental pressure.
Two bearish supply developments emerged. Australia has raised its wheat production estimate after finally receiving crop-friendly weather — a genuine reversal of the bearish Australian narrative that has been running all season. Russian wheat crop estimate has been raised to 95 million tonnes — up 2 million tonnes from last year. Russian October exports are expected at 3 million tonnes with 65% now transiting via Baltic ports — an increase from September’s 2.9 million tonnes, though still well below normal seasonal levels. The critical caveat is whether Baltic grain transit remains permitted given Estonia’s ban and Latvia’s 300% tariff — if Lithuania follows, that 65% Baltic share disappears overnight.
European Corn
French harvest at 92% complete against a five-year average of 46% — the drought-accelerated pace confirming the catastrophic yield outcome. The market is now oscillating between managing the shortage and the drastic demand rationing that has already occurred — buyers have partially adjusted by switching to alternative feed ingredients, which partially limits the upside from here. Rapeseed continues to oscillate in the €550-560 range on the February 2027 contract for the third consecutive week — the market is in equilibrium at this level awaiting a fresh catalyst.
US Markets
Described as “down and dirty” with fund liquidation evident across all products. Chicago corn broke below the $4.80/bushel support on December. Soybeans broke $12.80/bushel on Thursday with limited additional decline Friday. Corn export sales at 1.122 million tonnes — top of expectations — were insufficient to prevent the technical break. US corn is now cheaper than Brazilian origin for November-December delivery, which should attract export demand improvement — but it has not yet shown up in the weekly data. Today’s crop progress report will be watched carefully with dry Corn Belt weather expected to accelerate both corn and soybean harvest pace this week.
Opinion
Grains falling while crude breaks $100 is a meaningful signal. The energy-grain link that has provided structural support since February is weakening at the margin — markets are becoming more focused on harvest pressure and export fundamentals than geopolitical premium. This is a seasonal transition that happens every autumn but is more pronounced this year given how much of the rally was geopolitically driven.
Australia raising wheat production after better weather is the most genuine bearish fundamental development of the week. The bearish Australian narrative — El Niño, input costs, acreage reductions — was one of the pillars of the medium-term supply tightening story. A partial reversal of that narrative removes one supporting column. It does not collapse the bull case but it weakens it at the margin.
Russia at 95 million tonnes and increasing Baltic port usage to 65% of exports is the other bearish development. Russia is finding ways to export despite the Black Sea closure — slowly, expensively and in reduced volume, but the supply is gradually finding routes to market. Baltic ban risk remains the sword of Damocles over this — if Lithuania follows Estonia and Latvia, 65% of Russian export capacity disappears. Watch the Baltic political situation carefully this week.
Chicago SRW breaking $6.70/bushel support is the technical event that matters most for today’s open. When support breaks in a market with large fund long positions, the move tends to extend as stop-losses trigger. The question is whether there is genuine buying interest below $6.70 or whether the technical break accelerates the decline further.
The November-May spread in London — £205.00 versus £215.50 on May 2027 — continues to tell the post-Christmas story we discussed. Near-term under pressure; forward constructive.