Market Report 1st July 2026

Headlines
US President Donald Trump made more than $1bn (£750m) last year from business dealings in cryptocurrency, according to his mandatory financial report for 2025.

Ukraine's military used drones to strike Russia's Dubna satellite communications centre in Moscow for the second time, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.

Tehran says it won't meet Trump envoys - but lower-level talks will take place after strikes.

Red alerts for extreme heat have been issued in Italy and the Balkans as a record-breaking heatwave continues to bake the European continent.

Daily Market Update — Wednesday 1st July

Wheat
A flat session as markets digested yesterday's USDA report without conviction. London November 2026 unchanged at £177.25, Paris/Matif December also unchanged at €208.75. The report was characterised as bullish wheat — US wheat acres potentially the lowest on record — mildly bullish corn, and neutral for soybeans. No major surprises meant no major moves, with markets now returning attention to weather and harvest development. South Korea and Nigeria both purchased US wheat, confirming physical demand at current levels. EU wheat exports continue to run well ahead of last year at 23.17 million tonnes against 21.47 million tonnes, with barley exports 8.7 million tonnes against 5.18 million tonnes — nearly 70% ahead — a remarkable export pace that the futures market continues to undervalue.

Canadian wheat area came in 1.2 million acres below expectation, down 5.9% year on year with winter wheat down 11% — a meaningful supply reduction from a major exporting nation that adds to the cumulative global tightening picture.

UK Harvest — Early Days
UK harvest is underway with early reports inevitably distorted by the most forward and accessible fields. Some good hybrid feed barley yields on favourable land. Early winter malting barley showing potential but with screening issues — kernel size concerns that will need monitoring as more area is cut. The full picture will take weeks to emerge but the opening reports are broadly in line with expectations — functional rather than exceptional.

European Corn — A 26-Year Low
The combination of reduced planted area and heat damage is pointing toward French corn production of approximately 9.5 million tonnes — a 26-year low. This is a confirmed and significant supply event for European feed markets that will tighten the EU corn balance sheet materially through the coming season. With corn imports already running below last year and domestic production at generational lows, European feed grain markets face a genuinely tighter backdrop than the wheat price currently reflects.

El Niño & Indian Monsoon
El Niño continues to build with uncertain but likely negative consequences for multiple growing regions. Indian monsoons are already well below normal — the first signs of the drought scenario that was flagged several weeks ago are materialising. Indian wheat procurement and potential import requirements remain a watch point that will develop through July and August.

Fertiliser
Availability and pricing continue to influence forward cropping plans. Hormuz normalisation is easing but not resolved — the structural damage to 2027 planting economics from this season's input crisis will take time to fully unwind regardless of diplomatic progress.

Opinion US wheat acres potentially at their lowest on record. Canadian area down 5.9%. French corn heading for a 26-year low. Australian production under El Niño threat. Indian monsoon already below normal. EU barley exports 70% ahead of last year. And London wheat is unchanged at £177.25.

The disconnect between the physical supply reality and the futures price level has rarely been more pronounced. Fund selling has slowed — the liquidation wave that drove markets from late May highs appears to be exhausting itself — and buyers are beginning to bottom-pick as global stocks remain the market's comfort blanket against a supply story that is deteriorating across multiple origins simultaneously.

The UK harvest opening with screening issues on malting barley is a quality rather than a quantity story at this stage — but quality premiums on malting barley are commercially significant and worth monitoring as more samples come in. A season of weather stress does not typically produce uniform quality.

The USDA confirming bullish wheat data without a significant price response tells you the market needs a catalyst beyond data confirmation. That catalyst may come from harvest disappointments, Indian import demand, or a fresh weather event — but the data alone is not currently moving prices. Physical buyers know the value. The futures market is taking longer to agree.