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US army secretary resigns after months of tension.
At least 12 people have been killed and 17 injured, including two children, in overnight Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukraine's capital Kyiv and the wider region, officials say.
Andy Burnham will say a "sense of optimism" is at the heart of his vision about Britain's future, in his first Commons statement as prime minister on Tuesday.
The death toll in Nepal from devastating floods on the border with Tibet has crossed 1,000, according to the country's disaster agency.
Daily Market Update
Wheat
A powerful end to last week with London November 2026 closing Friday up £3.25 at £215.75 and November 2027 gaining £2.50 to £208.00. Paris/Matif December added 3.50 euros to €251.00. For the week as a whole the gains were extraordinary — November 2026 up £10.75, November 2027 up £6.00 and Paris December up 13.25 euros. The cumulative effect of Putin declaring talks fruitless, Egypt buying French wheat and Chicago reaching three-year highs on limit-up short covering has delivered the most significant weekly gain of the entire season.
Monday brought a partial reversal with UK markets closed for the bank holiday. Paris/Matif December fell 5.75 euros to €245.25 as Turkey announced it is seeking to broker a Black Sea safe corridor — the familiar pattern of peace-adjacent news triggering long liquidation. Chicago SRW December, which had been trading above $7.70/bushel, moved back below $8.40 on the HRW contract. Importantly, nothing concrete or operational has been communicated — Turkey's announcement is an intention to propose a solution, not a solution itself. Reports are contradictory with some suggesting Erdogan was due to meet Putin while others indicate Russia has already rejected the proposal.
The physical context behind any corridor discussion is sobering. August exports from Russia and Ukraine are down over 50% from August 2025. An estimated 80 ships are waiting to load Ukrainian grain. Russian domestic prices are down 36% since June — the economic pressure to export is immense. However even if a corridor is agreed, port infrastructure damage means exports will not resume instantly — the 2022 precedent is instructive, when Ukraine shipped 33 million tonnes before Russia withdrew claiming unfair treatment. A corridor, if it materialises, is a medium-term development measured in months not days.
French Corn — Worst in 15 Years
French corn crop continues its deterioration with the worst crop in 15 years now forecast — adding to the EU corn supply crisis that is pushing Euronext November corn near contract highs despite Monday's modest decline. The price spread between corn and wheat in France is at elevated levels specifically to encourage substitution — buyers are being priced toward alternative feed ingredients wherever possible.
Oilseeds & Rapeseed
Rapeseed eased slightly Monday with recent French rainfall providing some reassurance for sowing operations and emergence conditions. However the area that will actually be planted for 2027 remains uncertain. Australian ABARES estimates point to 2026-27 production of 7.3 million tonnes — down approximately 5% from last year despite increased planted area, with lower yields particularly in the west. Soybean oil is recovering toward last month's levels as firm crude oil provides support despite the EPA small refinery exemption announcement.
2027 Supply — Multiple Origins Reducing
A consistent picture is emerging across multiple major origins. Ukraine and Russia expected to reduce wheat areas for 2027 due to low prices, input problems, cash flow constraints, weather and general uncertainty. France struggling with OSR sowing. Australian rapeseed yields disappointing in the west. Canadian prairies drying. The 2027 supply picture is being compromised across origins simultaneously — and the September USDA report will be the first official attempt to quantify the emerging 2026/27 balance sheet.
AHDB Harvest Update
The AHDB has published its latest harvest estimates though trials have been difficult to evaluate due to environmental effects and land type variations under drought conditions. On malting barley variety performance, Buccaneer outperformed Craft at most winter malting sites — relevant intelligence for Norfolk growers assessing variety performance ahead of 2027 drilling decisions.
US Markets
Corn steady with the December contract trading above $5.40/bushel intraday before closing at $5.3775 — near contract highs. Fund length estimated at 400,000 contracts, approaching the all-time high of 450,000 contracts — a significant positioning risk if sentiment shifts. Crop conditions held at 57% good/excellent unchanged from the previous week. Soybeans traded a new contract high near $12.95/bushel — a level exceeded in early trading this morning. A further 159,000 tonne soybean sale was reported with China having purchased 36% of its 25 million tonne pledge. Wheat lower on Turkey corridor speculation.
Norfolk & East Anglian Context
The week's £10.75 gain on November 2026 futures is the most commercially significant development for Norfolk farm marketing this season. At £215.75 — even accounting for the Monday correction back toward £210 — these are historically exceptional values driven by confirmed and structural supply shortage. The Turkey corridor news introduces near-term downside risk to the logistics premium but the infrastructure damage means any corridor takes months to restore meaningful flow. The genuine production shortage premium — UK at 12 million tonnes, EU down 20%, US at 1970 lows — is more durable.
Opinion
November 2026 at £215.75 on Friday. A £10.75 weekly gain. Three-year highs in Chicago. Egypt buying French wheat. Putin declaring talks fruitless. Then Monday: Turkey proposes a corridor, markets sell off, Paris loses 5.75 euros, and by Tuesday morning the physical reality is unchanged — 80 ships waiting, Russian domestic prices down 36%, August exports down 50%. The corridor that moved markets on Monday does not exist yet. Russia has probably rejected it. Even if it materialises, Novorossiysk is 1-4 months from repair.
This is the central tension in wheat markets for the coming weeks. The logistics premium — which is very real and very large — will deflate when a credible corridor emerges. The production shortage premium will not. Understanding which premium you are selling when you market grain is the most commercially important analytical question facing Norfolk growers right now.
Fund length approaching the all-time high of 450,000 contracts in corn is the positioning risk that hangs over the entire complex. At 400,000 contracts and rising, any bearish catalyst — a corridor announcement, a peace signal, a crop condition improvement — could trigger a significant and rapid unwind. The market has done this before. It will do it again. The question is whether you are positioned ahead of it or caught in it.
Buccaneer outperforming Craft at most winter malting barley sites is the variety intelligence Norfolk growers needed ahead of 2027 drilling decisions. File it alongside the El Niño wet autumn forecast and the 2027 forward values currently available when planning autumn seed and input orders.
September 1st. Harvest largely done. The most volatile August in the grain market for a generation. What comes next will be determined by Turkey's corridor proposal, the September USDA report and the El Niño autumn that is already building.