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Ukrainians have died because Kyiv is still not receiving reliable US warnings of incoming Russian attacks, according to a key adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Chancellor John Healey has dismissed calls from some Labour MPs to increase Capital Gains Tax (CGT).
Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to a record low - indicating that next month's midterm elections could be punishing for the Republicans.
Labour has cut £2bn from front-line Army equipment as John Healey tries to fill a defence spending black hole in his first Budget.
Daily Market Update
Wheat
Continued weakness. London November 2026 fell £1.50 to £203.50, May 2027 eased 50p to £215.50, November 2027 edged up 25p to £202.25, and Paris/Matif December barely moved at €243.50. The selling pressure that intensified at the end of last week continued Monday — US harvest pressure and fund liquidation are the primary drivers with European markets following Chicago lower despite stronger domestic fundamentals. Euronext December wheat is back at the €242-243 support zone — a level that has held repeatedly and will be tested again today.
Bulgaria has 5 million tonnes ready to ship but vessel owners remain nervous following recent attacks — a concrete illustration of how the physical supply blockage extends beyond the directly attacked ports. Even when grain is available and buyers are willing, the insurance and security risk is preventing shipments from moving. This is the logistics premium in its most practical form.
French winter wheat planting is at 15% against a five-year average of 21% — lagging establishment adds to the 2027 supply concern. French corn harvest is 92% complete against a 46% average — the drought-accelerated pace confirming the catastrophic yield outcome throughout.
Australian wheat harvests beginning well and Argentine crops progressing are providing the southern hemisphere competition that is limiting European export demand and weighing on nearby prices. El Niño has not yet materially impacted South American conditions — benign weather there remains a bearish counterpoint to the bullish Northern Hemisphere supply story.
Rapeseed
The sharpest decline of Monday’s session. The February 2027 Euronext contract broke below €550/tonne support — its lowest level since August 31st — closing at €546.50. The November 2026 contract expiry mechanics and soybean weakness in Chicago are the primary drivers rather than a fundamental shift in European oilseed supply. However, breaking the €550 support is technically significant and will attract further algorithm-driven selling. The structural supply case remains intact but the market needs a fresh catalyst to reverse this technical deterioration.
European Corn
The November 2026 contract is holding at €292.75 — still €20 above the March 2027 contract. The nearby tightness remains extreme but demand rationing is creating “spasmodic” demand patterns as buyers cover requirements in bursts rather than continuously. The structural deficit is real; the market expression of it is increasingly volatile.
US Crop Progress
Corn harvest at 44% — up 11 points on the week but well below the 52% five-year average. Soybean harvest at 64% — slightly below the 65% average. Winter wheat planting at 63% — below the 69% average. All three key metrics lagging, confirming the difficult harvest season. Fund long positions in corn estimated at 360,000 contracts as of October 13th — with harvest pressure ongoing and export performance weak, further liquidation remains likely. The early November USDA report will be the next opportunity for yield revisions and export adjustments.
Opinion
Bulgaria sitting on 5 million tonnes unable to ship because vessel owners are too nervous to enter the Black Sea. This is not a futures market abstraction — it is grain that exists, buyers that want it, and a physical risk environment that prevents the transaction. The logistics premium is justified by exactly this kind of real-world market failure. When Black Sea security improves, that 5 million tonnes hits the market rapidly. Until it does, it sits in store adding pressure to Bulgarian domestic prices while global buyers pay a premium for alternative origins.
Rapeseed breaking €550 support is the technical event to watch closely today. The November expiry distortion has been a factor all month but February 2027 breaking its support independently is a cleaner signal. At €546.50, the next meaningful support is around €530. Whether that level holds will depend on whether soybeans find a floor in Chicago and whether the Rhine logistics situation improves. The structural case for European oilseeds remains — Ukrainian supply unavailable, French OSR establishment lagging, global vegetable oil demand firm — but technical breaks attract sellers regardless of fundamentals.
Fund long at 360,000 corn contracts with harvest pressure mounting and exports down 35% year on year. The early November USDA is the scheduled event that could either extend the selling — if yield revisions are more modest than expected — or trigger a short-covering bounce if Ukrainian and Russian export downgrades dominate. The direction is uncertain but the positioning risk is clear.
The May 2027 contract at £215.50 holding while November 2026 falls to £203.50 — the £12 carry is the post-Christmas thesis made visible. Near-term pressure is real and may have further to run. The forward picture remains constructive.