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UK to provide military support to Saudi Arabia in its fight with Houthi rebels.
Russia’s new parliament will include 49 deputies who have taken part in the war against Ukraine, officials have said after a landslide victory by the ruling United Russia party in widely criticised elections.
Andy Burnham said he expects to find "common ground" with Donald Trump at the pair's first face-to-face meeting on Tuesday.
Daily Market Update
Wheat
A positive session after Friday's lethargic close. London November 2026 gained £1.50 to £211.25, November 2027 up £2.00 to £206.50, and Paris/Matif December added 2.25 euros to €243.75. Markets are finding their footing at technical support levels with the Xi-Trump meeting on Thursday providing the near-term directional catalyst. Turkey-Russia exchanges on Black Sea transit continue but operators have become appropriately sceptical — numerous announcements over recent weeks have produced no tangible improvement and the market is no longer selling aggressively on diplomatic news alone.
Ukraine wheat exports since July 1st are down 44% year on year — a number that continues to accumulate with every passing week. Russia is actively switching export activity toward Baltic ports with Murmansk being prepared by converting coal and fertiliser terminals to handle grain — a concrete operational step rather than a diplomatic statement. Russian export prices are nominally down $6 — domestic oversupply pressure building behind the continuing export bottleneck.
The most important medium-term signal of the session is this — Russian and Ukrainian growers are planning to plant less winter wheat for next season. Given that Russia and Ukraine together contribute 30% of world wheat trade, a meaningful reduction in autumn plantings creates a supply problem for 2027/28 that is entirely separate from the current season's logistics crisis. The 2027 supply story is being compromised at the planting stage right now.
US winter wheat planting is at 17% of area — progressing rapidly with the season well underway.
European Corn — Yields Confirming Worst Case
French corn harvest is progressing with marked disappointment on yields including on irrigated corn — the one category expected to partially offset dryland crop stress. Even fields with irrigation access are producing disappointing results, confirming the heat damage was too severe and too prolonged for irrigation to compensate. Euronext November corn has rebounded toward €270/tonne, erasing the past two weeks of easing as the production failure is confirmed in actual harvest data rather than crop ratings.
Dry conditions continue to cause concern in France for both late plantings not yet finalised and crops already seeded — the OSR establishment challenge is real and ongoing heading into October.
Rapeseed
Back above €555/tonne on the November Euronext contract, approaching recent highs — supported by soybean and canola strength in the US ahead of the Xi-Trump meeting. Persistent French dry weather affecting both late-planted OSR and early-seeded crops adds a domestic 2027 supply dimension.
Oil & Hormuz
Oil down approximately $3 as Hormuz traffic reaches a six-month high according to US sources — a genuine and positive development for the energy supply picture. Saudi Arabia intends to reopen its pipeline. Iran talks continue. The Middle East situation is moving in a constructive direction — if sustained, the fertiliser supply disruption that has been reshaping global crop economics since February begins to meaningfully ease.
US Markets — Xi-Trump Positioning
All products higher as the imminent meeting animates Chicago. Preliminary discussions are reportedly positive. If the 10% Chinese tariff on US soybeans is lifted, the price competitiveness of US origin versus South American beans improves significantly — a development that would reshape global soybean trade flows and potentially unlock large-scale Chinese procurement. Soybeans gained 24.5 cents to close above $13/bushel approaching recent highs. Corn bounced from support to return above $5.40/bushel — up 2.9% on the session. Corn harvest is at 13% complete with crop conditions stable at 57% good/excellent. Wheat rebounded from near $7.10/bushel to close above $7.25 — less dramatic than corn but directionally positive.
Norfolk & East Anglian Context
Russian and Ukrainian growers planning less winter wheat is the most commercially significant medium-term signal this week for Norfolk grain values. If 30% of world wheat trade comes from these two origins and both are reducing planted area, the 2027/28 supply picture tightens structurally — independently of whether the Black Sea logistics crisis is resolved. November 2027 forward values deserve serious attention in this context. The Hormuz improvement is the most constructive energy development in months — if sustained, it eases the fertiliser cost headwind that has been making 2027 crop planning so difficult. Watch carefully for confirmation over coming days.
Opinion
Russian and Ukrainian farmers planning less winter wheat. Russia and Ukraine are 30% of global wheat trade. Even without the current season's logistics crisis, a meaningful reduction in autumn planted area creates a supply problem that arrives in 2027/28 regardless of what happens in the Black Sea between now and harvest. The 2027 forward market is beginning to price this — November 2027 at £206.50 reflects a market that sees the supply problem extending beyond the current crisis.
French irrigated corn yielding below expectations is the harvest data point that changes the conversation from "drought damage" to "structural crop failure." Irrigation is supposed to be the insurance policy against exactly the conditions France experienced this summer. If irrigated crops are also disappointing, the production failure is more total than the pre-harvest estimates suggested. Euronext corn returning toward €270 is the physical market's response to this confirmation.
Hormuz traffic at a six-month high is the most practically positive development for global agricultural supply chains in months. If this is sustained — and Saudi pipeline reopening would reinforce it — the fertiliser supply normalisation that has been needed since February begins to materialise. For Norfolk farmers planning 2027 inputs, this matters enormously. Watch for confirmation rather than celebrating a single week's data.
Xi-Trump on Thursday. Preliminary discussions positive. Ten percent soybean tariff the bull case. The market has been building toward this meeting for weeks. Whatever it produces, Thursday will be a significant market day.