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Top Iranian and US officials have held talks at the UN in New York on a day when the US leader said he could "annihilate" the Islamic Republic if the conflict went unresolved.
More than 450,000 people are projected to die from the additional heat brought by the super El Niño in the next six months, according to estimates by climate scientists.
US President Donald Trump will host Chinese leader Xi Jinping this week in Washington, with everything from AI to trade and Taiwan on the agenda for the leaders of the global superpowers.
Zelenskyy to seek support as Russia 'ready to expand the war'.
Daily Market Update
Wheat
A very quiet session. London November 2026 eased 25p to £211.00, November 2027 down 80p to £206.00, and Paris/Matif December unchanged at €243.75. The UN General Assembly in New York is attracting market attention with Zelensky and the Russian foreign minister both present and meetings with US representatives scheduled — but no concrete outcomes have emerged yet on the Black Sea or energy situations. Markets are in a holding pattern, waiting for Thursday's Xi-Trump meeting to provide fresh direction.
Russia has dropped its wheat export tax until year end — a significant commercial move to stimulate export activity through alternative routes given the Black Sea blockage. Russia has simultaneously announced it will buy 3 million tonnes of wheat to replenish domestic reserves — an unusual combination of export stimulation and domestic stock building that reflects the complex economic pressures facing Russian agriculture. Putin has won his election as expected, theoretically strengthening his political position — which may or may not translate into greater flexibility on the conflict.
Russian winter wheat planting is slow and behind normal — mirroring Ukraine's 3.3% planted figure and confirming that both of the world's largest wheat exporters are entering the 2027 planting season with momentum problems. Southern hemisphere wheat production early estimates point to a potential 18% year-on-year decline — if this materialises, the global supply tightening extends firmly into next season.
UK wheat drilling is underway but western Europe has only very limited rain forecast — a challenging backdrop for crop establishment. OSR is losing some acres to flea beetle damage, adding a domestic supply concern for next season's rapeseed crop.
European Corn — Accelerating
The standout session performer. Euronext November corn surged through a key technical zone to approach €276/tonne — close to the highest levels of the month — on volumes more than double the previous two sessions. EU corn imports are running 27% above last year at 4.47 million tonnes since the start of the campaign despite still-incomplete data — physical confirmation that buyers are actively replacing devastated domestic production with imports from North American and South American origins. French harvests are confirming disappointing yields including on irrigated crops. European buyers are substituting with other cereals or imported corn — supporting UK feed grain values directly.
Rapeseed
Eased in the wake of lower crude oil and soybean oil but held above €550/tonne on the November Euronext contract. Flea beetle is taking some OSR acres in the UK, adding a domestic supply dimension to the 2027 crop. France's OSR sowing is still incomplete with dry conditions persisting. Uncertainty around 2027 European OSR area is keeping operators cautious about selling the market lower.
US Markets — Post-Speculation Consolidation
Markets gave back some of Monday's speculative gains as the reality of waiting for Thursday's Xi-Trump meeting settled in. Early US corn yields suggest production close to the USDA forecast with soybeans slightly below — broadly neutral data. Argentina's Buenos Aires Stock Exchange raised corn production to 66 million tonnes for 2026/27 and soybean production to 53.6 million tonnes — both above last year, adding a modest South American supply headwind. The dollar index above 100 points at its highest since July 30th is weighing on dollar-denominated commodity prices and US export competitiveness. Soybean meal continues to progress toward new contract highs on December while oil falls — the meal-oil divergence is becoming structural.
Canada is in negotiations with India for a trade deal and has agreed restricted trade terms with the EU — developments that may affect canola and wheat trade flows but have not moved markets yet. Some UK politicians have expressed concern that the UK is being left behind in these trade negotiations.
Norfolk & East Anglian Context
EU corn imports up 27% confirms what FEFAC warned — official estimates were insufficient and buyers are covering at pace from whatever origins can deliver. UK feed wheat competing for this import demand stream is directly supported by this data. Flea beetle taking some UK OSR acres and limited western European rainfall for drilling — the 2027 domestic crop faces headwinds from the very start of establishment. Discuss autumn input and seed strategy with Dewing Grain before drilling commitments are finalised.
Opinion
Russia dropping its export tax until year end while simultaneously buying 3 million tonnes for domestic reserves is a revealing combination. The tax removal says: we need export revenue urgently. The domestic purchase says: we're worried about our own supply. Both statements together suggest Russian grain market dynamics are considerably more stressed than the headline production numbers of 88+ million tonnes imply. When the world's largest wheat exporter both cuts export taxes and buys grain for its own reserves in the same announcement, something is not entirely straightforward about the supply picture.
Southern hemisphere wheat potentially down 18% year on year. Add this to the accumulating list — UK at 12 million tonnes, EU down 20%, US at 1970 production lows, Canada below estimates, Black Sea exports at half normal pace, and now the southern hemisphere potentially delivering 18% less. The global supply cushion that the USDA's headline stock numbers suggest exists is becoming increasingly theoretical as each new estimate arrives lower than the last.
EU corn imports up 27% at 4.47 million tonnes and still incomplete. The European compound feed industry is buying corn from wherever it can find it. UK feed wheat is one of the things they are buying instead. That demand is not going away because Thursday's Xi-Trump meeting goes well or badly — it is structural and season-long.
Flea beetle taking UK OSR acres. Limited rain for drilling. Russia and Ukraine both planting less winter wheat. Southern hemisphere down 18%. The 2027 crop is being compromised before it is established across every major origin simultaneously. November 2027 at £206.00 may prove conservative.
Thursday. Xi. Trump. The market awaits.