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Donald Trump has welcomed Xi Jinping at the airport with a red carpet and military flyover to kick off a historic three-day US visit.
President Masoud Pezeshkian has said Iran will never "bend the knee" after almost seven months of war with the US and Israel, but is ready for a diplomatic solution to the conflict.
US President Donald Trump's Board of Peace has announced a Gaza recovery plan worth $2.45bn (£1.85bn) during a meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.
Poland has said a Russian military helicopter briefly violated its airspace, forcing the Nato member to scramble fighter jets while ground forces remained on alert.
Daily Market Update
Wheat
A difficult session. London November 2026 fell £2.75 to £208.25, November 2027 down £2.00 to £204.00, and Paris/Matif December shed 3.25 euros to €240.50 — approaching the key €240 support level. The driver was familiar — reports of possible limited ceasefire on energy and grain infrastructure between Russia and Ukraine, prompting another round of fund long liquidation. Five years into the conflict, diplomacy has consistently failed to deliver and yet each new rumour still moves the market. The Euronext December wheat contract is testing significant technical support at €240 — a level that will be closely watched today.
The physical context provides important nuance. Ukraine estimates it could export 20 million tonnes through Baltic outlets — but at approximately $100 per tonne in additional transport costs versus Black Sea routes. That premium does not disappear with a ceasefire announcement — it reflects real logistical cost that keeps Ukrainian wheat expensive relative to pre-conflict pricing even if ports reopen. Additionally, Russian September exports have been revised up to 2.3 million tonnes — an improvement from initial estimates of 1.75 million tonnes but still severely constrained. The geographic reach of Russian exports tells the real story — September exports went to just 8 countries versus 26 last year, and August to 16 countries versus 43 last year. Russia is not just exporting less — it is exporting to far fewer destinations as the conflict reshapes trade relationships.
COCERAL has published its EU and UK grain production estimate at 279 million tonnes — down 8 million tonnes from its July estimate and well below last year's 307.4 million tonnes. Wheat is estimated at 137.5 million tonnes against 148.7 million tonnes last year. Ukraine's wheat harvest came in at 25.3 million tonnes — up 11% year on year, a modestly positive supply datapoint. Ukraine's new crop wheat planting has reached 14.6% while Russia is running 14% behind its average planting pace — the 2027 supply concerns continue to build.
Eastern Australia is receiving just 25% of normal August-September rainfall — El Niño impacts becoming visible in actual conditions rather than probability forecasts. The southern hemisphere supply concern is materialising in real precipitation data.
Today's Xi-Trump Meeting
Markets are waiting for today's outcome with considerable anticipation. Soybean purchases and tariff developments are the primary focus — any commitment above the existing 25 million tonne pledge or removal of the 10% import tariff would be a significant bullish signal. India cutting edible oil import duty has added a modest bearish oilseed offset. Trump banning diesel exports to lower domestic prices ahead of midterms is an unusual intervention that signals how politically sensitive energy costs have become.
Rapeseed
The exception to yesterday's weakness — fully erasing the previous day's decline and briefly trading above €556/tonne on November 2026. The euro weakening below 1.1450 against the dollar mechanically supports European commodity prices denominated in euros. Structural supply tightness from Ukrainian unavailability and French OSR establishment difficulties continues to provide an independent floor.
US Markets
All products lower as the stronger dollar weighs and markets wait on the Xi meeting. Chicago SRW December below $7.10/bushel — its lowest level this month. Corn December below $5.30/bushel at the bottom of its month-long trading range. Mexico bought 100,000 tonnes of US corn — a modest demand signal at lower price levels. Technically, wheat is approaching levels where a sharp bounce is possible if the Xi meeting delivers positively today.
Opinion
Russian exports reaching just 8 countries in September versus 26 last year is the data point that most clearly illustrates the structural damage to Russian grain trade relationships. Export disruption is not just about volume — it is about commercial relationships, freight contracts, phytosanitary approvals and buyer confidence. Even when the Black Sea reopens, rebuilding those 18 missing country relationships takes time. The pre-conflict trade architecture does not simply snap back.
Ukraine's Baltic export estimate of 20 million tonnes at $100/tonne extra cost is the honest answer to "what happens if a ceasefire is agreed." Some supply returns — but at a cost premium that keeps prices elevated relative to pre-conflict levels. A ceasefire deflates the logistics premium significantly but does not eliminate the cost structure of alternative routing.
COCERAL cutting EU and UK grain production by 8 million tonnes from July to September tells you that official estimates continue to lag the physical reality. The direction has been consistently downward throughout the season. There is no reason to expect that trend to reverse in the October update.
Eastern Australia at 25% of normal rainfall. El Niño moving from probability to precipitation reality. Southern hemisphere supply concerns are no longer theoretical.
Today is Xi-Trump day. The market has been building toward this meeting for weeks. Whatever it produces, it will move markets — and the direction will depend on whether tariff reductions and purchase commitments exceed, meet or disappoint the expectations that have been building since the meeting was first announced.