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The Kremlin said it views London’s plans to give Kyiv the technology to produce SCALP missiles “extremely negatively.” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Britain “is taking part in this war on the side of the Kyiv regime.” Russia’s armed forces, he said, “are doing the relevant work to identify missile production sites.”
Andy Burnham has suggested tax rises could be on the cards in the looming Autumn Budget, warning he “won’t be unrealistic” over the state of the public purse.
Vladimir Putin is setting conditions to raid private assets in the country to raise funds, according to new analysis.
A Canadian politician has threatened to cut off electricity and mineral supplies to the US after President Trump raised tariffs on some goods to 50%.
Daily Market Update
Wheat
A two-speed session that ultimately closed positive. London November 2026 gained £1.50 to £206.50 and Paris/Matif December added 0.75 euros to €239.00. Markets opened in the green before retreating mid-session as caution prevailed, then recovered into the close as the fundamental supply reality reasserted. The gap between political statements and ground-level reality continues to widen — Zelensky's ceasefire offer was described by Putin as "exotic" and promptly rejected, while Ukraine simultaneously targeted Russian refineries and energy plants. Strikes continue on both sides of the Black Sea with flows from the region at a fraction of normal seasonal volumes.
Russian August wheat exports are now estimated below 2 million tonnes against 5.7 million tonnes in August 2025 — a 65% year-on-year collapse. Russian domestic prices are falling sharply as wheat has nowhere to go — another concrete illustration of the logistics-not-production nature of this supply crisis. A weaker rouble adds to Russia's economic pressure. Both countries are losing significant export revenue and the economic pain is building — but neither is translating that pressure into a diplomatic opening.
International buyers are adapting. Romanian and Baltic wheat is seeing sustained demand as buyers reposition away from the closed Black Sea corridor. France is gaining market share — Morocco's ONICL has announced the reopening of imports from mid-September, which should particularly benefit French offers given the exceptional quality this season. First French wheat to Sudan in 18 years and now Morocco reopening to French imports — the trade flow realignment caused by Black Sea disruption is becoming structural.
MARS updated EU yield estimates. Soft wheat held at 5.88 t/ha but European corn was revised sharply lower to 6.61 t/ha from 6.93 t/ha last month — with further revisions still possible. EU corn production is deteriorating with every official update and the USDA's figures continue to lag the more pessimistic private and European estimates.
Rapeseed — Sharp Correction
OSR suffered a significant reversal, falling approximately 16 euros to approach €520/tonne on the November Euronext contract. The pressure came from two directions — the EPA in the US extending the deadline for refiners to demonstrate biofuel blending compliance, which eased regulatory pressure and caused soybean oil to fall sharply across the Atlantic. This move transmitted directly to European rapeseed markets. Separately, announced rain forecasts for France are offering producers a potential sowing window — modestly positive for establishment but not a fundamental change in the supply picture. For Norfolk OSR growers watching forward values, this correction represents a technical pullback rather than a structural reversal — the underlying supply case remains intact.
US Markets — Pro Farmer Tour Delivers Bearish Corn
The Pro Farmer Crop Tour concluded with a suggested corn yield of 173.2 bushels per acre — well below the USDA's 180.7 bushels per acre estimate. This is a significant gap that the September USDA report will need to address. Corn ratings fell a further 3 points to 57% good/excellent — below the 59% expected, below last year's 71% and below the five-year average of 67%. Chicago December corn moved back to $5.20/bushel on the session. Soybean ratings fell 1 point to 60% good/excellent. The September USDA report, when it incorporates these deteriorating conditions, has the potential to be a significant market mover.
Trump's desire to tax Canadian imports adds uncertainty to canola markets — almost all Canadian canola oil is destined for the US market, making tariff implementation a significant trade flow disruption for the oilseed complex.
Norfolk & East Anglian Context
Morocco reopening to French wheat imports from mid-September is a trade flow development worth monitoring for Norfolk. Historically Morocco has been a significant buyer of UK wheat — if French origin captures a larger share of the Moroccan market through September and October, it reduces one export avenue for UK grain. However the overall demand picture, with Black Sea supply effectively unavailable, means sufficient demand exists across multiple markets. The French quality advantage this season — 92% at 11%+ protein — means competition for premium milling contracts is the more relevant competitive dynamic rather than feed wheat export markets.
Opinion
Putin describing Zelensky's ceasefire offer as "exotic" while Ukraine targets Russian refineries is the diplomatic situation in two words. There is no negotiation happening. Both sides are conducting economic warfare through grain export infrastructure attacks, both are losing revenue, and neither has yet reached the pain threshold that forces a genuine compromise. The economic pressure is building — a weaker rouble, collapsing domestic Russian wheat prices, Ukrainian export revenues at a fraction of normal — but it has not yet translated into diplomacy.
Pro Farmer tour at 173.2 bushels per acre versus USDA's 180.7 is a 7.5 bushel gap on the world's largest corn crop. At US corn production scale, 7.5 bushels per acre is an enormous volume of supply that disappears from the balance sheet. The September USDA report incorporating these findings has genuine potential to be a market-moving event across the feed grain complex. UK feed wheat and barley values will not be immune to a significant US corn balance sheet tightening.
The OSR correction on EPA biofuel deadline extension is a policy-driven move rather than a supply or demand fundamental — the structural case for elevated OSR values remains intact. Norfolk growers who were considering forward pricing 2027 OSR at the recent highs should note that the correction may provide a second opportunity at strong values rather than representing a trend reversal.
Morocco reopening to French wheat from mid-September. France gaining Black Sea market share. Romanian and Baltic wheat in sustained demand. The trade flow realignment that began when the Black Sea closed is becoming established and will persist regardless of when shipping eventually resumes — buying relationships and logistics chains once redirected do not simply snap back overnight.