Menu
Headlines
Andy Burnham has pledged to continue the UK's "unwavering" support for Ukraine ahead of meeting Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday.
President Donald Trump has paused attacks on Iran for the second night in a row to give diplomacy more time, the US ambassador to the UN said.
Emmanuel Macron, the French president, is holding a crisis cabinet meeting this morning as wildfires threaten the city of Bordeaux. Fires in France and Spain have forced the evacuation of more than 360,000 people.
Daily Market Update
Wheat
An extraordinary day of volatility to end the week. London November 2026 had a £12.50 intraday trading range before closing at £199.75 — down significantly from Thursday's highs but still up £2.50 for the week. November 2027 fell £3.00 to £197.50. Paris/Matif December shed 8.75 euros to €236.25, though the weekly loss was just 25 euro cents given Monday's surge. The pattern is now entirely familiar — rumour of peace or diplomatic progress triggers massive fund liquidation, reality reasserts, and prices partially recover.
Friday's collapse was triggered by reports that Ukraine would consider negotiations with Russia to resume maritime grain export flows, with Tuesday's Zelensky-Trump meeting fuelling expectations. Informed experts consider a genuine agreement unlikely — both sides need export revenue but the political and military obstacles are immense. Nothing concrete has emerged from the Russian side. The market erased a significant portion of Friday's losses before the close as the rumour was contextualised.
This morning brings a potentially significant development — the US has paused its Iran strikes since Friday evening, with Iran halting retaliation in return. Brent has rapidly fallen below $88/barrel in London, having been above $100 mid-week. The euro has rebounded above 1.1405. This oil move will weigh on grain markets at today's open as the energy-linked premium partially deflates — the same dynamic we have seen repeatedly throughout this conflict.
French corn ratings fell a further 2 points to 38% good/excellent against a five-year average of 69% and last year's comparable figure. Fires are raging in southwest France. A new heatwave is expected this week delivering what FranceAgriMer describes as a potentially fatal additional blow to corn and sunflower crops. The weather story has not softened — only the geopolitical narrative has temporarily shifted.
Russian total grain production is now forecast at 139 million tonnes with wheat at 60 million tonnes — a significant downward revision with wheat exports cut to 44.5 million tonnes from the previous 46 million tonne forecast.
Zelensky-Trump Meeting — Tomorrow
President Zelensky meets Donald Trump today — the meeting the grain market will be watching as closely as any diplomatic event this season. Any agreement framework for Black Sea shipping resumption would trigger a sharp sell-off. A meeting that produces only vague commitments — the more likely outcome according to most analysts — would see the market partially recover from today's peace-optimism dip. Position accordingly.
US Markets
Corn and soybeans quickly detached from wheat's Friday decline and refocused on their own weather concerns — temperatures approaching 40°C in the Dakotas, Nebraska and western Iowa are threatening Corn Belt yields at a critical development stage. Soybeans closed up 10.5 cents despite wheat's weakness. Chinese buying hopes remain supportive with President Xi's US visit expected at end of September. The next USDA report could reduce yield predictions and tighten stocks-based export activity.
Opinion
£12.50 intraday range. Brent from above $100 to below $88 in three days. French corn at 38% good/excellent. Fires in southwest France. Zelensky meeting Trump today. This market has not found calm — it has found a new level of volatility around a higher price base.
The peace rumours that crashed the market on Friday afternoon are the same quality as every previous peace rumour in this conflict — unconfirmed, unilateral and rapidly contextualised. Ukraine considering various solutions is not the same as Russia agreeing to any of them. Informed experts think agreement is unlikely because the incentives on the Russian side point toward using grain supply disruption as leverage rather than offering it as a concession.
French corn at 38% good/excellent with another heatwave arriving and fires burning in the southwest is the domestic European supply story that will eventually dominate when the geopolitical noise settles. That number — 38% against a 69% five-year average — represents a harvest failure by any reasonable definition. The EU will need to import corn at a rate that competes with disrupted Black Sea supply. That arithmetic does not resolve itself peacefully regardless of what happens in Switzerland or the Persian Gulf.
Oil below $88 from above $100 in three trading days is the kind of move that reshapes market psychology. The war premium that has been the market's primary bullish driver since February is being repeatedly challenged and repeatedly reasserted. The question is which direction it settles when the Zelensky-Trump meeting concludes today.
£199.75 on a bad Friday. The floor has moved considerably higher than where this journey started.