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Gas bill standing charges to be scrapped, chancellor says ahead of Budget.
Elon Musk has said his company SpaceX restricted Ukraine's Starlink internet service, after Ukrainian officials said connectivity issues appeared to have been resolved.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Tuesday that the information war around Ukraine would continue and was likely to escalate.
Argentina has said Flavio Bolsonaro entered the country before boarding a private flight to Ecuador on Tuesday after losing Brazil's presidential election.
Daily Market Update
Wheat
Grinding lower with no end to the selling in sight. May 2027 fell £1.25 to £204.50 and November 2027 lost £1.00 to £195.00 — the psychologically significant £195 level now being tested on new crop. Paris/Matif December recovered 2 euros to €228.50, helped by the euro falling to 1.1120 against the dollar — the currency move providing mechanical support that the fundamental news flow is failing to deliver. The rebound on Euronext was timid and limited to front contracts supported by Tunisian and Jordanian purchases rather than any broad change in sentiment.
Ukraine wheat exports since July 1st are now confirmed at 3.5 million tonnes — down 43% year on year. Russian wheat FOB prices fell another $3 to approximately $246 — domestic oversupply building relentlessly behind closed export routes. The EU has still not issued a statement about limiting Russian grain exports via Baltic ports despite the ongoing attacks on vessels — a diplomatic inaction that is leaving one of Russia’s few remaining export channels open.
The Black Sea situation remains confused. A local humanitarian ceasefire was announced at the initiative of Melania Trump while Putin continues diplomatic exchanges with multiple leaders and Lavrov issues contradictory daily statements. Drone attacks on vessels heading to Ukrainian ports continue regardless. The pattern of this conflict — diplomatic announcements accompanied by simultaneous military action — is now so established that the market barely distinguishes between the two.
Kansas wheat has now fallen 14 out of the last 15 sessions. The market is technically deeply oversold by any measure — but oversold markets can remain oversold, and with funds still liquidating and no fresh bullish catalyst, the timing of a bounce remains elusive. Beneficial rain falling on the US plains is adding a near-term bearish weather narrative on top of the positioning pressure.
European Corn
March 2027 support at €265/tonne — in place since early October — is beginning to crack, closing at €263.25. The structural European feed deficit is real and confirmed but the broad selling pressure in wheat is testing the corn market’s independent fundamental support. A sustained break below €260 would be technically significant.
Rapeseed
Holding above €550 on the February 2027 Euronext contract — supported by euro weakness and firm crude oil. Progress is being limited by soybean weakness in Chicago. The structural supply case is providing a floor but the oilseed complex lacks an independent bullish catalyst to break higher from here.
Weather — Shifting Picture
An important medium-term context shift. The dry weather that was simultaneously affecting western Europe, Canada, the US, India, Australia, South Africa, China and parts of South America a few months ago has largely been relieved by subsequent rainfall. Southern Russia and parts of India remain dry but the broad global weather anxiety that contributed to this summer’s price surge has materially eased. Australia’s crop prospects have improved significantly — though Queensland and New South Wales reduced planting due to El Niño fears. El Niño’s impact appears to be reducing in scale relative to earlier fears, though some analysts still predict a 10% cut to Brazilian production.
Argentina’s corn crop has been raised to 62 million tonnes — 7 million tonnes above the USDA estimate. South American supply is building as a genuine medium-term bearish counterweight to Northern Hemisphere tightness.
Opinion
Kansas wheat down 14 out of 15 sessions. May 2027 at £204.50. November 2027 at £195.00. Paris at €228.50. These are numbers that would have seemed impossible in September when the market was pricing a historic global supply crisis. The supply crisis has not resolved — Ukraine exports down 43%, Russia at $246 FOB with grain it cannot export, EU running ahead of last year to fill the gap. The market has decided to look elsewhere.
What it is looking at instead: southern hemisphere supply recovery, El Niño fears diminishing, Argentina corn raised 7 million tonnes above USDA, Brazilian real weak making South American supply cheaper, fund positions unwinding from extraordinary highs. These are real developments. They do not reverse the Northern Hemisphere supply destruction but they provide the justification for fund selling to continue.
November 2027 at £195.00 is the new crop contract at a level that implies very little supply premium relative to long-run average costs of production. UK growers farming marginal land at current input costs need prices above this level to generate positive margins on wheat. The market is not yet pricing that reality — but it will when new crop demand begins to appear in earnest post-Christmas.
The Melania Trump humanitarian ceasefire announcement is an unusual diplomatic development. Whether it carries any operational weight is unclear — but it suggests the conflict is permeating political circles at a level that eventually produces pressure for resolution. Meanwhile the drones keep flying.