Menu
Headlines
Ukrainians received fake alert warning of nuclear and chemical threats after 'hack'.
A US judge has dismissed President Donald Trump's lawsuit against The Wall Street Journal over a story about a birthday card he allegedly sent Jeffrey Epstein.
A photocall of foreign ministers was cancelled by the US after the UK's Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband and other European counterparts refused to be pictured with Russia's envoy Sergei Lavrov.
Democrats have high hopes for midterms - but are the polls right?
Daily Market Update
Wheat
A quiet end to the week. May 2027 eased 25p to £202.50, November 2027 gained 75p to £193.75, and Paris/Matif December added 1 euro to €228.00. For the week, May 2027 lost £5.50, November 2027 fell £3.50 and Paris December dropped 6 euros.
The week’s losses were driven by the erosion of Black Sea risk premium. A potential truce and Russia allowing vessels through the Sea of Azov kept pressure on prices. After last week’s announcement effect, the market is now testing reality, and implementation is slow, partly due to unfavourable weather. Trilateral talks between Ukraine, Russia and the US are due this week in Abu Dhabi, but the situation remains hypothetical and hostilities are not reducing.
Euronext December held the €227 support zone tested throughout last week, closing up 1 euro. It was only the third green close in 12 sessions, which shows the strength of the preceding sell-off.
French wheat planting is 62% complete, up from 45% last week, against 67% last year and a five-year average of 59%. Australian wheat is estimated at 32 million tonnes, down 4 million on last year but 10% above the ten-year average. The Australian barley crop is 17.7 million tonnes, up 40% on the ten-year average and 4.4% on last year, as growers swapped wheat for barley on weather risk and high fertiliser costs. Chinese barley demand is good following tariff removal.
European Corn
Struggling more than wheat. March 2027 fell 50 cents to €258.75 after failing to hold above €260. Demand rationing is showing its strength.
Rapeseed
Free of the November 2026 contract, which expired on Friday amid low European water levels. February and May 2027 closed up €1.75 and €2.25 respectively, helped by very firm rapeseed oil, and are back in their early-October trading range.
US Markets
Little movement, with prices close to equilibrium. US wheat exports last week were a one-year high, though the season total remains below last year. Lower prices have made US wheat competitive again, and there are rumours of Chinese buying. Key supports being watched are $6/bushel on SRW December, $4.50 on corn December and $12.20 on soybeans November. The US mid-term elections are tomorrow, and the result is too close to call. A strengthened or weakened President Trump could shift the geopolitical backdrop quickly.
Opinion
The market is now in a testing phase. The Azov window was a headline, and traders are watching whether ships actually move. So far it is slow, and weather is part of the reason.
Wheat has held €227 for a week but only just. Three green closes in 12 sessions tells you who is in control. Support holding is not the same as a turn.
Australian growers swapping wheat for barley is a useful reminder that El Niño fear changes planting even when the weather doesn’t deliver. Barley is cheaper to grow and less risky, which matters for next season’s supply balance.
Tomorrow’s US mid-terms add a wildcard. Nobody knows the outcome, and the market is unlikely to take big positions ahead of it. Expect a quiet start to the week, then movement once the result and the Abu Dhabi talks are known.