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Britain and France are to lead a military exercise to test a multinational force's ability to deploy to Ukraine, if there is a peace deal.
Americans head to the polls for elections that could define Trump's closing chapter.
The UK and EU have agreed a draft deal on removing post-Brexit checks from food and agriculture exports, ahead of the UK-EU summit later this month.
The US has launched strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz, US officials have told CBS, the BBC's US partner.
Daily Market Update
Wheat
A thin start to the week and month. May 2027 edged up 50p to £203.00 on just over 250 lots, trading a £201.25-£203.75 range. November 2027 fell £1.50 to £192.25 on two lots. Paris/Matif December added 0.50 euros to €228.50 on around 43,000 lots, while March 2027 eased 0.50 euros to €227.50 and May 2027 lost 1.25 euros to €227.25. Chicago SRW December held above $6, up 2¼ cents at $6.05¾ in a tight $6.01-$6.09½ range.
Monday’s session was dominated by a sharp fall in crude oil, back to mid-October levels, after Washington and Tehran signalled they were open to talks. That has since been overtaken by events. President Trump struck Iran again overnight, and oil is moving higher this morning. The talks signal that pulled oilseeds and other commodities lower on Monday is now in doubt, so today’s open may see some of that reversed.
The Black Sea and Russian export flows remain the focus. As mid-season approaches, Southern Hemisphere competition is adding volume to the international market and pressure to wheat. Euronext December is stabilising around €228.
There were some demand signs. The USDA reported a 1.73 million tonne corn sale to Mexico, the ninth largest daily export sale on record, plus 136,000 tonnes of soybeans to China.
European Corn
Falling, reflecting imports into the EU and France to cover the short 2026 crop, and widespread substitution away from corn because of its price relative to other grains. The November 2026 contract closes on Thursday, so its open position is contracting and prices are adjusting sharply lower. March 2027, which holds almost 70% of total corn open interest, closed below €257 and is at its lowest since 26th August. Deferred contracts are down €2-3.
Rapeseed
February and May 2027 fell back below €550 on Monday, erasing last week’s progress in a single session, following crude oil and helped by a euro rebound above 1.12. With oil now rising again after the overnight strike on Iran, rapeseed has scope to recover some of that loss today.
US Markets
Soybeans fell as much as 1.4% on Monday to their lowest since 25th August, with money managers trimming bullish bets across the soy complex. December soybean oil closed just above 65 cents/lb, its lowest close in over six months, and is also likely to benefit from firmer crude. Soybean harvest has less than 11% left. Corn harvest is 74% complete, in line with expectations. Winter wheat sowing is 83% complete, slowed by rain, and the first crop ratings show 44% good to excellent.
The US mid-term elections take place today. Polling stations close this evening, with results coming through overnight and into Wednesday. Close races may take longer to call, so the outcome may not be clear for today’s trading.
Opinion
A quiet London session, and a reminder of how thin this market is. Almost all the volume was in May, with three lots in November 2026 and two in November 2027. Small trades produce misleading closing prices, so treat the November 2027 figure with caution.
Crude has been the tail wagging the dog again. Talk of US-Iran negotiations took oilseeds down on Monday, and a strike on Iran overnight has put oil back up. That is a fast reversal, and it shows how little weight to put on any single headline.
The 1.73 million tonne corn sale to Mexico is worth noting. It was the ninth largest daily sale on record. Lower prices are bringing buyers back, and the same is likely for wheat.
First winter wheat ratings at 44% good to excellent are a poor start to the US crop. It is early, but it matters for next season.
With oil firmer, the mid-terms pending and the Abu Dhabi talks still to come, expect a nervous session today.