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JD Vance said on Wednesday that the war against Iran doomed the Republican party in the US midterm elections, which are widely seen as a sweeping rebuke of Donald Trump’s presidency.
Donald Trump has warned the Democrats that impeaching him would “destroy” their party.
For the first time in more than three years, the Bank of England will raise interest rates this afternoon. While the decision has yet to be made, a hike is all but guaranteed, with traders pricing in a 98% chance.
Daily Market Update
Wheat
Prices remain under pressure from a combination of factors. London May 2027 closed at £200.25, down about 75p, after trading below £200 during the session. November 2027 gained £1.00 to £192.00. Paris/Matif December fell €1.25 to €224.00, its lowest level since mid-July and back to where the market was when Black Sea uncertainty first emerged this summer.
Talks to reopen Black Sea grain routes are gaining substance, with Russian and Ukrainian representatives due in Abu Dhabi next week. Ukraine’s total grain stocks are estimated at a record 36.1 million tonnes, four times last season, because of export difficulties. If an agreement is reached, large volumes of corn and wheat could become available quickly. Storage capacity is stretched, and some corn could be left in fields. A stronger sterling and euro would also increase buying power for importers. Southern Hemisphere crops continue to increase, adding to the bearish momentum.
Oil fell about 9%, or $8, as hopes grow for an end to the Iran war. The euro rose above 1.1250 after the US mid-term results, which is a further headwind for European grain prices. Brazil’s agricultural machinery sales are down 21.6% year on year on low profits and poor prices, a sign of how much pain there is across the sector.
Rapeseed
Down more than €10 on the 2026 harvest contracts. February 2027 closed below €530, its lowest since 25th August, following crude and the stronger euro. The CME FOB Dutch Mill rapeseed oil contract for February 2027 is now at €1,210/t. Biofuel operators meeting at the Rotterdam exchange this week will be watching the falling prices.
Corn
Falling, with distant Euronext contracts approaching mid-August levels.
US Markets
Chicago wheat and corn fell early in the session on Black Sea hopes but closed almost unchanged in wheat and slightly higher in corn. December wheat closed below $6 at $5.9850, and corn at $4.4425 after trading as low as $4.3850. Both are at their lowest since early July, which is attracting some buyers. Soybean oil for January is below 64 cents/lb, near a six-month low, and January soybeans are testing $12, their lowest since mid-August.
The mid-term results suggest possible de-escalation in the conflicts where the US is engaged, though that is unconfirmed. With President Trump’s authority weakened, the market is asking whether China will review its buying agreement. Wheat looks oversold and exhausted, so downside should be limited, but it needs buying demand. Next week’s USDA report is the next data to digest.
Opinion
Wheat is back where the summer rally started. Futures have given up all of the Black Sea risk premium, and a mid-July price now sits against a market that is still short of exports.
The Ukraine number is the one to remember. A record 36.1 million tonnes of stocks, four times last season, will flood out when routes reopen. That is the bear case, and it explains why the market won’t hold on to good news.
The agreement is not done, though. Abu Dhabi next week is the test, and the market has priced a lot of hope in advance.
Brazilian machinery sales down 21.6% are a reminder that low prices hurt growers everywhere, and low prices are what eventually cure low prices.