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Trillions of dollars have been wiped off the stock value of major tech firms in the US, Europe and Asia amid concerns of a slowdown in AI development.
High above the Arctic, powerful winds usually circle the North Pole each winter, helping trap some of the coldest air on Earth.
Iran appears to be undertaking significant new construction near at least two of its major missile sites and repairing bases damaged by months of US and Israeli air strikes, analysis of satellite images suggests.
Donald Trump met with one of Putin's top envoys at the White House, hours after the first lady hosted Russian and Ukrainian officials. Meanwhile, Ukraine reported that Russia flew a drone with "propaganda" leaflets and a "trap" QR code.
Daily Market Update
Wheat
Pressure continues. London May 2027 closed at £201.00, down 75p and November 2027 fell £1.25 to £190.75 but did not trade. Paris/Matif December lost €1.00 to €223.00, its lowest since mid-July, with the stronger euro failing to help. Wheat and corn front contracts on Euronext closed €1.00 and €1.75 lower respectively. Funds are actively liquidating, and the global geopolitical and macro backdrop is adding to the selling.
International trade is very calm. The European Trade Exchange is being held in Rotterdam, and importers are waiting for next week’s Russia, Ukraine and US talks to see whether cheaper supplies become available. Total peace is unlikely, but any agreement on safe passage for grain would add price pressure. Ukraine’s October wheat exports were 1.1 million tonnes, up 26%, with grain moving via alternative routes to the Black Sea.
UK Domestic Demand
AHDB data for July to September is not encouraging. Total grain demand is down 4% year on year, with wheat down 3.3% and barley down 1%. Pig feed is the biggest fall at 19.1%. Maltster demand is down 12.8%, with demand failing to appear.
Oil and Macro
Oil recovered some losses to bounce back above $90/barrel in New York after the Democrat mid-term win, as markets thought peace with Iran more likely. It is still sharply lower over the week on de-escalation hopes, though continued Middle East disruption is giving support. US equities fell sharply, with the Nasdaq down 5.5% on “black Thursday”, as the change of majority raised concern that AI investment may slow.
Rapeseed
February 2027 closed down €2.00 at €526, its lowest since 24th August, despite firmer crude.
US Markets
Mixed, with only wheat closing very slightly higher. Chicago December SRW remains very close to $6 support. US wheat export sales were very good for the second week running at 538,028 tonnes, the second best weekly total this campaign, showing renewed competitiveness, especially for Asia. Corn sales of 1.3 million tonnes were fine but at a three-month low. Corn and soybeans remain pressured by fund liquidation and harvest, and soybeans fell the most. Soybeans are below their 200-day moving average with funds still around 150,000 contracts long. South American weather is benign and demand is routine. The next USDA report could raise soybean production, cut corn and revise exports.
Opinion
Wheat is the one grain finding buyers. Two weeks of good US export sales say the price is now low enough to attract demand.
The UK numbers are poor. Pig feed down 19.1% and maltsters down 12.8% show that domestic demand is not helping. Cheap grain is not creating buyers at home.
Equities fell hard, and the grain complex has felt it through fund selling. Soybean funds are still 150,000 long, so there is more liquidation risk.
Next week brings Abu Dhabi and the USDA. Both could move prices, and with so little buying, either could move them a long way.