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Authorities say an explosive drone found near a jet in Leipzig was a "serious attack" on Germany - amid reports the Ukrainian aircraft was loaded with ammunition.
New US intelligence assessments have reportedly warned that Russian president Vladimir Putin could test Nato’s unity with a limited attack on an alliance member within the next few years.
On Thursday, at least 30 Yemeni government troops were killed in Houthi attacks on military camps in Yemen, government sources said, warning the death toll could rise. Some reports have put the death toll as high as 58.
Iran said a deal with Oman to reopen the strait of Hormuz is close to being finalised, with reports suggesting Tehran would have control over ships entering the Gulf through the strategic waterway.
Daily Market Update
Wheat
A quiet, modestly negative session. London November 2026 eased 50p to £197.75 and Paris/Matif December fell 2.75 euros to €229.00. The market is consolidating at elevated levels with few fresh catalysts in either direction. An important distinction is emerging — the recent price rises have been driven primarily by logistics and supply chain disruption rather than production failure alone. Russia and Ukraine are both forecast to have large wheat crops, and traditional importers Turkey and Morocco have better domestic production this year. The problem is not that the wheat doesn't exist — it is that it cannot move. Black Sea FOB prices from Russian and Ukrainian origin are actually lower, but transport is the insurmountable obstacle with the Black Sea effectively a no-go zone. Russia hit a foreign-flagged vessel in Odessa port yesterday — confirming that the physical risk to shipping is not receding.
This distinction matters for how the bull case is framed. If and when Black Sea shipping resumes, a significant portion of the current supply premium could deflate rapidly — the wheat is there, it just cannot get out. However with Ukrainian port storage at capacity and the corn harvest imminent, the logistics crisis will worsen before it improves regardless of any diplomatic progress.
Ukraine supplies 64% of EU corn imports — with ports effectively closed, European corn importers face a supply crisis that is entirely separate from the wheat story and arguably more immediately acute. EU corn at potentially 49.1 million tonnes against the USDA's 57.5 million tonne estimate — a gap of 8.4 million tonnes that will need to be sourced from somewhere. South American and US origin will be the primary alternatives but at significantly higher freight costs given current market conditions.
East Anglian Malting Barley — Difficult News
East Anglian malting barley is reported with very poor yields and high nitrogen content — a double commercial disappointment.. At a time when domestic malting demand from brewers and distillers remains depressed, the combination of poor yields and quality issues is commercially painful for growers who had been hoping for malting premiums to compensate for a difficult season. This is an important local market signal — Norfolk malting barley growers should establish nitrogen content results before committing to any premium contracts.
Drought-hit farmers are calling for simpler planning processes for reservoir construction — a sensible long-term response to what is now a recurring drought pattern across East Anglia.
Canadian Wheat
Canada's wheat crop is estimated down 13% year on year due to lower planted area — another major exporter reducing supply simultaneously. With the US at 1984-low production, Russia and Ukraine unable to export efficiently, Australia under El Niño threat and Canada down 13%, the global exportable supply picture is being compressed from every direction.
US Markets
Quiet session as weather improvement in stressed crop areas reduced urgency. Soybeans slightly higher on further Chinese sales with more expected — President Xi's US visit in seven weeks is providing a diplomatic backdrop for continued procurement. Corn quiet but exports running ahead of USDA schedule. Wheat lower with few buyers despite the Black Sea situation — approaching strong support levels that if broken could trigger technical selling.
2027 Supply Warning
The logistics crisis backing up grain in Black Sea ports has a 2027 consequence that is not yet being discussed widely. Farmers in Ukraine and Russia who cannot move this season's crop will face difficult decisions about planting next season — cash flow problems, storage costs and input availability will all weigh on autumn planting intentions. The 2027 supply picture may be compromised by this season's logistics failure before a single seed is sown.
Opinion
The wheat is there — it just cannot move. That single sentence is the most important nuance in the current market. Russian and Ukrainian FOB prices are actually lower because the physical supply exists — the premium the market is paying is a logistics and risk premium, not a production shortage premium. When Black Sea shipping resumes — and at some point it will — that logistics premium deflates. What remains is the genuine production shortage from the US, EU, UK, Canada and Australia simultaneously. That is still a substantial bull case, just not as extreme as the full current premium implies.
Ukraine supplying 64% of EU corn imports with ports effectively closed is the supply story that will dominate European feed markets through autumn and winter. The EU will be paying up for US and South American corn in volumes and at freight costs it has not budgeted for. That demand competition will affect price levels across the entire feed grain complex including UK feed wheat and barley.
Canadian wheat down 13%. US at lowest since 1984. England at lowest since 1984. EU down 20%. Australia under El Niño threat. Russia and Ukraine unable to export at normal pace. The production is there in some of these countries — the question is whether it can reach the markets that need it before the storage crisis forces painful decisions about next season's planting.
Strong support levels approaching on Chicago wheat. Watch carefully — a break lower would be technically significant and could accelerate selling from algorithm-driven funds.